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The official start to the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season might still be about 10 days away, but we've already had our first named storm of the season and another could develop over the next few days! Tropical moisture will be very close to central Florida between now and the upcoming Memorial Day weekend.
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The feed of deep tropical moisture that was over central Florida much of this week has shifted to our east, but a chance of storms remains in the forecast for the weekend. While there will be fewer storms overall, the storms that do develop will likely be on the strong side.
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The humidity was low on Friday, allowing for a warm but comfortable day across central Florida. While the humidity will increase just a bit to start the weekend, Saturday will still be a great day for outdoor plans but, by Mother's Day, rain returns to central Florida with a chance of afternoon showers and storms.
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The first so-called supermoon since March 2011 will hang low in the sky tonight just after sunset, appearing noticeably larger and brighter than a typical full moon.
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An unusual mix of ingredients, for this time of year, came together over the weekend for a big storm system to carve its way through the Gulf of Mexico. Rain came in multiple waves, with the strongest weather reserved for sea breeze storms Friday afternoon and a squall line Sunday morning. In between, the forecast for Saturday didn't go exactly as planned because parts of Florida got wetter than expected! This is a break down of what went wrong (and right!) in our weekend forecast.
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After a day that felt like we fast-forwarded into summer -- parts of central Florida saw over 2" of rain in very active sea breeze thunderstorms -- we'll rewind into winter this weekend as an unusual area of low pressure tracks across the Florida peninsula. It will bring with it widespread heavy rain and the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms.
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Rainfall thus far this month has been sparse, with most of central Florida anywhere from a half inch to close to an inch below average. For all but Flagler County, the drought index numbers are into the severe to extreme category and only limited rain chances are in the forecast over the next couple of days.
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With a westerly flow for most of the day, temperatures pushed into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees Monday afternoon across central Florida. More of a sea breeze means slightly -- just barely -- cooler air for Tuesday and a higher chance of rain.
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An upper level disturbance will move across central Florida late Friday into Saturday, increasing our chance of rain to 20% Friday and 40% on Saturday. By Sunday, as that disturbance passes to our east, temperatures will climb into the upper 80s and low 90s -- it'll feel more like May and June than the beginning of April!
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In what has already been a very warm March, the month will close with temperatures in the upper 80s as we head into the weekend. There is also an increasing chance of rain in the forecast as an upper level disturbance approaches central Florida.