Posted: 9:00 a.m. Friday, Oct. 11, 2013
By Brian Favat
Jeff: 4-1, 15-15 overall ATS
Brian: 3-2, 11-19 overall
2013 Standings below: (All-Time Standings here)
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns (+14) - There is not much reason to be optimistic about Texas football right now. However, this is a rivalry game and Oklahoma is not very good this season. Oklahoma almost lost at home West Virginia who got smacked by Maryland. Oklahoma is a better team than Texas this year once again but not 14 points better.
South Carolina Gamecocks (-6) at Arkansas Razorbacks - South Carolina has been disappointing in their last two home games. If South Carolina is truly a top ten team they should handle Kentucky easily. But South Carolina students leave the game earlier than anybody and the players are students too which allows lesser team to get back into the game. Since the Gamecocks play on the road, South Carolina will win easily.
Boston College Eagles (+25.5) at Clemson Tigers - I think it is reasonable to assume that the Eagles defense will not give up more than 60 points. So Andre Williams, we need 5 touchdowns to get the cover.
Michigan Wolverines (-3) at Penn St. Nittany Lions- Michigan is a legitimate top 25 team this year and will be ranked at the end of the season. But Penn State is no where near a top 25 team. Happy Valley is a tough place to play but the atmosphere can not make up for that big of a talent gap.
Brian: Unfortunately, I started things off on the wrong foot last night ...
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Louisville Cardinals (-19) - I expected the Teddy Bridgewater coming out party last night. What we got, however, was an unimpressive, too close for comfort game where Louisville added a touchdown late to win by just two scores. Without the Rutgers fake FG 26-yard competition to the 1-yard line setting up the Scarlet Knights' only TD of the game, Louisville probably covers here. The Cardinals outgained Rutgers by over 200 yards (461 to 240), RU rushed for a net 12 yards and converted just 3-of-13 third down conversions ... yet Louisville only wins by 14. Football is strange like that sometimes.
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Army Black Knights (-7) - Army starting QB Angel Santiago, who left the BC game with a left ankle injury, is expected to play against EMU tomorrow at Michie. Perhaps this is wishful thinking, but I have to think the Black Knights (2-4) are more than a TD better than Eastern Michigan (1-4). The Black Knights briefly took the lead in the third quarter against Boston College last week, while EMU has been mostly noncompetitive vs. FBS competition this season. This is a rematch of a 2012 game where, despite rolling up a 413-208 edge in rushing yards, Army surrendered 369 and 5 TDs through the air in a 48-38 loss in Ypsilanti. Already this year, EMU has been routed by Penn State (45-7), Ball State (51-20) and Buffalo (42-14) and lost to Rutgers by 18 (28-10). The Eagles lone win on the year is a 34-24 victory over Howard in which EMU was down 11 with a minute to go in the third quarter.
Kent St. Golden Flashes at Ball St. Cardinals (-14) - Ball State returns home after a big 48-27 victory over a reeling Virginia squad. The Cardinals are one of the few teams in the country to have thrown for over 300 yards in each of their games this season. Kent State is coming off a 14-point loss home loss to NIU. At 5-1 (3-0 MAC), Ball State is one of the top teams in the MAC. Kent State is not. Like the Cardinals big here.
Virginia Cavaliers at Maryland Terrapins (-7) - This line surprises me. Maryland starting QB C.J. Brown is listed as doubtful with a lingering concussion suffered in the Florida State game. I don't care. Maryland has more than enough firepower to beat UVa at home by more than a TD in spite of the AMQBHG. Virginia is averaging just 11 PPG and 236 yards per game against BCS opponents. Coming off a non-conference loss to Ball State, that season opening win over BYU is looking more and more like an outlier than a true indication of the Cavaliers abilities this year. Still, this is a "rivalry" game in the final year of the "rivalry" so anything can happen. Still like Maryland to cover here.
Oregon Ducks at Washington Huskies (+14.5) - Oregon has covered in every game this season (4-0-1 ATS) including some astronomical spreads even in conference play. This is the first manageable spread the Ducks have had all season ... and it's still of the two plus score variety. Despite the 31-28 loss, Washington hung tough with Stanford last weekend, outgaining the Cardinal by more than 200 yards. If not for an opening kickoff returned for a TD and a failed fourth down conversion late, the Huskies may have very well upset the 5th ranked team in the nation on the road. This game is at home and I like the Huskies to hang with the Ducks here.