AXNT20 KNHC 191033
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 41.2N 47.4W OR ABOUT 475 
MILES...765 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AT 19/0900 
UTC MOVING NE AT 22 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 
KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER 
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A LARGE EYE IS STILL 
EVIDENT WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION W AND N OF THE CENTER. BERTHA 
IS NOT EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR TOO LONG AS IT WILL BE 
MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS. BERTHA WILL BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL ON 
SUN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE N 
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE W QUADRANT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS CENTERED NEAR 32.4N 79.4W OR ABOUT 
45 MILES... 70 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND 
ABOUT 295 MILES...475 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH 
CAROLINA AT 19/0900 UTC MOVING NE AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE 
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
MOST ALL CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY OFFSHORE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 76W-80W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 
78W-79W.    

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF 21N WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG 
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N MOVING WNW 15-20 KT. A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
COULD FORM AT ANY TIME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WNW. ALL 
INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS 
SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS MOVING ACROSS HAITI...E 
CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 72W-77W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-12N 
BETWEEN 73W-74W.  

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. HIGH 
AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY 
WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W S OF 21N WITH A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE 
WAVE INLAND OVER EL SALVADOR. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO 
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE... 
GUATEMALA...S MEXICO...AND EL SALVADOR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND 
MUDSLIDES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
10N-17N BETWEEN 88W-92W.  

THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 18N16W 8N30W 6N40W 9N60W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 
19W-24W...AND FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 32W-37W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 24W-30W.    
 
DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS ARE 
PREDOMINATELY SELY 5-10 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA S OF 21N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 
93W-95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED 
OVER S TEXAS NEAR 27N99W PRODUCING SLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE 
W GULF W OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA 
NEAR 30N84W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NE GULF W OF 
90W AND N OF 26N. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL 
CUBA NEAR 22N79W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE SE GULF AND W CUBA S 
OF 26N AND E OF 86W. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE OVER W CUBA AND THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITHIN 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE 
PRESENTLY OVER HAITI. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA...S MEXICO...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO THE 
TROPICAL WAVE PRESENTLY ALONG 89W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BOTH TROPICAL 
WAVES HAVE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA FROM 
11N-13N BETWEEN 83W-85W. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
MOVING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 13N AND E OF 65W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CUBA IS 
PRODUCING CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N60W. BOTH UPPER 
LEVEL LOWS HAVE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN HAS CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT THE 
TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. 
ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
T.D.THREE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OFF THE 
COAST OF FLORIDA. SEE ABOVE. FURTHER E...A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER 
THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N53W 28N58W 28N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1028 HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE 
AZORES NEAR 42N30W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 27N49W. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
NEAR 28N64W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 28N50W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 30W.        

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FORMOSA