AXNT20 KNHC 191033
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 41.2N 47.4W OR ABOUT 475
MILES...765 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AT 19/0900
UTC MOVING NE AT 22 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80
KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A LARGE EYE IS STILL
EVIDENT WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION W AND N OF THE CENTER. BERTHA
IS NOT EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR TOO LONG AS IT WILL BE
MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS. BERTHA WILL BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL ON
SUN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE N
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE W QUADRANT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS CENTERED NEAR 32.4N 79.4W OR ABOUT
45 MILES... 70 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND
ABOUT 295 MILES...475 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA AT 19/0900 UTC MOVING NE AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25
KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
MOST ALL CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY OFFSHORE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 76W-80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN
78W-79W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF 21N WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N MOVING WNW 15-20 KT. A TROPICAL CYCLONE
COULD FORM AT ANY TIME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WNW. ALL
INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS MOVING ACROSS HAITI...E
CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 72W-77W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-12N
BETWEEN 73W-74W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. HIGH
AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W S OF 21N WITH A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE
WAVE INLAND OVER EL SALVADOR. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...
GUATEMALA...S MEXICO...AND EL SALVADOR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-17N BETWEEN 88W-92W.
THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 18N16W 8N30W 6N40W 9N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
19W-24W...AND FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 32W-37W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 24W-30W.
DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS ARE
PREDOMINATELY SELY 5-10 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA S OF 21N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN
93W-95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER S TEXAS NEAR 27N99W PRODUCING SLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
W GULF W OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA
NEAR 30N84W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NE GULF W OF
90W AND N OF 26N. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
CUBA NEAR 22N79W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE SE GULF AND W CUBA S
OF 26N AND E OF 86W. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE OVER W CUBA AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITHIN 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE
PRESENTLY OVER HAITI. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...S MEXICO...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE PRESENTLY ALONG 89W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BOTH TROPICAL
WAVES HAVE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA FROM
11N-13N BETWEEN 83W-85W. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
MOVING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 13N AND E OF 65W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CUBA IS
PRODUCING CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N60W. BOTH UPPER
LEVEL LOWS HAVE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN HAS CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.
ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
T.D.THREE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA. SEE ABOVE. FURTHER E...A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N53W 28N58W 28N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1028 HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE
AZORES NEAR 42N30W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 27N49W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 28N64W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 28N50W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 30W.
$$
FORMOSA
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