National

Michigan's 11th Congressional District: This crowded race is all a political junkie could ask for

WASHINGTON – If you’re a political junkie, or even just a sometimes-interested observer, you can’t really ask for much more than the crowded race in Michigan’s 11th Congressional District.

It’s exactly the kind of Republican-held suburban district Democrats have to swing if they’re to retake control of the U.S House. It straddles two counties – Wayne and Oakland – that voted for Hillary Clinton in a state that elected Trump by just three-tenths of a percentage point (or less than 11,000 votes out of 4.8 million cast). The incumbent, U.S. Rep. Dave Trott, R-Birmingham, who has criticized the president, has called it quits.

Political handicappers say it’s a toss-up. Republican National Committee Chairman Ronna McDaniel lives in the district, increasing its potential symbolism and the likelihood that lots of outside funding – in support of both parties – will flood in. And it’s attracted a field of current and former state legislators; well-heeled and/or experienced newcomers; experienced-if-not-successful former nominees, and a combative one-time holiday Santa/teacher/Army vet who is the former congressman.

What more could you ask for?

Headed into the Aug. 7 primaries, there isn't an overwhelming favorite. There is little to no recent independent polling. And with five Republicans and five Democrats making the ballot for their respective parties’ nominations, a handful of percentage points in any direction could decide each race and set the stage for November.

“That’s what I’m thinking, too. No one person is getting 55% of the vote,” said state Sen. Mike Kowall of White Lake, a later entry into the Republican field but one who has a history in the district and has secured some key endorsements, including that of Oakland County Executive L. Brooks Patterson. “It’s going to be a matter of a couple of percentage points.”

With so much swirling around the race – and this being a race both parties are keying in on as Democrats look to flip two dozen seats that would return them to majority control in the U.S. House – here’s a lighting-round look at the candidates, the lines of attack, some of the issues, and the 11th District:

Let’s start with the candidates…

Here’s the rundown and a little bit of background. On the Republican side, the contenders are:

  • Kerry Bentivolio of Milford: Former educator, Army veteran, National Guardsman (not to mention reindeer rancher and sometimes Santa). He held this seat in 2013-14 before getting beaten by Trott. He tried to mount a write-in bid two years ago that also failed.
  • Lena Epstein of Bloomfield Hills: Business owner, co-chair of Trump's 2016 Michigan campaign, she's poured nearly $1 million of her own money into the campaign. She also considered running for U.S. Senate before settling on this race.
  • State Rep. Klint Kesto of Commerce Township: A former prosecutor, he has strong ties to the Chaldean community.
  • Kowall, of White Lake: A former state representative and township supervisor, his state Senate district is entirely within this congressional district and he currently serves as the majority floor leader. His wife, Eileen Kowall, is a former state representative and an Oakland County commissioner.
  • A. Rocky Raczkowski of Troy: Businessman, retired Army Reserves lieutenant colonel and former state representative, he lost a close race to then-U.S. Rep. Gary Peters in Michigan's 9th District in 2010. He also lost – by a much larger margin – as the nominee against former U.S. Sen. Carl Levin in 2002.

On the Democratic side:

  • State Rep. Tim Greimel of Auburn Hills: A former Oakland County commissioner, he served as state House minority leader from 2013 to 2017.
  • Suneel Gupta of Birmingham: An entrepreneur who grew up in Novi and has been raising scads of money, he is brother to CNN medical correspondent Sanjay Gupta.
  • Fayrouz Saad of Northville: Former Homeland Security employee and immigrant affairs director for Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan.
  • Nancy Skinner of Bloomfield Hills: A climate change activist and radio commentator who lost a somewhat close race to then-U.S. Rep. Joe Knollenberg in 2006 and ran unsuccessfully for the nomination in this district in 2014.
  • Haley Stevens of Rochester Hills: Worked on campaigns for Clinton and President Barack Obama before becoming chief of staff for Obama's auto task force, which helped save General Motors and Chrysler in 2009.

Two others, independent Cooper Nye and libertarian Leonard Schwartz, are also in the race but don’t figure in the Aug. 7 primary, which is far more likely to decide who will eventually hold the seat.

The district was drawn for Republican control

While the Michigan 11th is considered a toss-up this year, it’s been relatively safe ground for Republicans for some time, especially since 2011, when the state Legislature gerrymandered the lines to protect then-U.S. Rep. Thad McCotter, R-Livonia, who had a couple of small scares in 2006 and 2008.

Rising through western Wayne and Oakland counties, the district sweeps east in a narrowing band avoiding West Bloomfield, Farmington Hills, Pontiac, then bobs south catching Auburn Hills, Troy, Birmingham. In several places there are juts, irregularities, covering but a few blocks. In outline, it looks something like a cartoon ostrich, bent over to examine its stomach.

But whatever it looks like, it didn’t work out for McCotter, who after an abortive presidential run, got caught up in a scandal over fraudulent re-election petition signatures. He stepped down, leaving the race to Bentivolio, who was little-known but was the only other person registered for the ballot.

Bentivolio won a term (with Democrat David Curson serving out the remainder of McCotter’s term) in 2012 but was handily bounced by Trott – a lawyer who had widespread institutional support and wealth – in 2014.

As to whether the district should be in play this year, it's anybody's guess: While Oakland and Wayne supported Clinton, the district itself went for Trump, slightly, by 4.4 percent. Democrats are betting that more-educated, business-oriented voters, especially those in Oakland County, are set to reject Trump. Republicans feel otherwise.

“It’s been a mystery to me from the beginning (why Democrats believe it’s up for grabs),” said Bill Ballenger, a Michigan political analyst and founder of the Ballenger Report. “I’m a little puzzled by the whole thing. (But) it's really a jump ball on both sides as to who is going to win the nomination.”

Few policy differences, but a wide range of backgrounds

As with many primaries, there seems to be far less that separates the candidates in each party policy-wise than that which unites them.

A quick scan of websites for the Republican candidates, for instance, shows a mostly common thread of shrinking government, cutting taxes, reducing regulations and fighting terrorism and illegal immigration. So-called “sanctuary cities” – where local leaders have decided to limit cooperation with federal officials in enforcing immigration laws – come under wide attack. So does the Affordable Care Act – Obamacare. Most say they are pro-Israel.

Among the Democrats, meanwhile, there seems to be general consensus around improving health care access, protecting and strengthening public education, and reforming immigration laws, in part, so that so-called Dreamers – undocumented immigrants who arrived in the U.S. as children – can remain. Many also call for what they call common sense gun control measures.

That's not to say some of the websites don't differ in some details – Saad, for instance, has more specifics on her proposals for gun control such as raising the minimum age to buy a semi-automatic rifle or shotgun to 21, and Raczkowski has small breakouts on some 30 issues, including the need to protect farmers from regulations he says do nothing to help consumer safety. But there is some general agreement.

But where the candidates really differ is in their backgrounds.

Some, like Epstein – who co-owns her family's automotive and industrial lubricants business – and Gupta – who helped create Rise, an app that helps users improve their diet and health – tout their outsider status, their successes in business, their understanding of how the world works. ("People are looking for problem solvers, not politicians," Gupta said.)

Others, like Kowall and Greimel, point to legislative accomplishments – such as Kowall's writing legislation that helped expand testing and research on self-driving vehicles and Greimel's working to raise the minimum wage and work with Gov. Rick Snyder to expand Medicaid coverage in Michigan.

Then there are others like Kesto and Saad, who may be better positioned to tap into key ethnic communities in southeastern Michigan. Or Raczkowski and Skinner – or Bentivolio – who can point to having run (and in one case won) for Congress, with some measure of success before. Or Stevens, who can legitimately claim a role in perhaps the most consequential federal initiative in Michigan's recent history: a program that resulted in keeping General Motors and Chrysler afloat.

“It was a profound moment of crisis and everybody here knows what it felt like,” said Stevens, who grew up in Birmingham. “People were calling my office and crying their eyes out.”

Each, of course, argues that his or her own skill set is the one needed in Washington.
"I like all of my opponents," Epstein said "(But) none of them are going to win."

Controversies, ads and sussing out the race

Whoever wins, it's going to be an expensive race – already, as of June 30, the candidates as a group had raised nearly $7 million, compared to the $2.5 million spent in the same district throughout the election cycle in 2015-16. And we're just getting started: expect outside money to rush in after Labor Day.

Looking across both parties in terms of fundraising, Epstein leads the pack, having built a campaign warchest of more than $1.6 million, though much of that – $990,000 – comes  in the form of a loan she gave her own campaign. Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Gupta – a political unknown before this race – has tapped contributors for more than $1.3 million, while loaning himself $150,000.

Stevens has raised just over $1 million; Greimel, about $816,000; Saad, $636,000 – all of which are respectable amounts headed into a primary.  On the Republican side, Kesto’s raised about $430,000; Kowall, $272,000; Raczkowski, $218,000. Bentivolio reported having raised $28,000; Skinner hasn’t reported any fundraising at all.

As for controversies – as well as attacks and counterattacks – there have been a few of note.

Epstein's campaign loudly protested when she said Franklin Hills Country Club, which her family had long belonged to, canceled her scheduled fundraiser because of her views at a time when the Trump administration was being widely criticized for separating families trying to enter the country illegally. (It later turned out that Franklin Hills decided not to allow any more political fundraisers of any kind.)

Bentivolio, meanwhile, sued Raczkowski, claiming the latter defamed him by suggesting his military record was fake – a claim Raczkowski denied, while acknowledging that some years ago he questioned some comments he claimed Bentivolio made about receiving several awards, though Bentivolio denied having ever made those comments.

Just last week, Kesto, in an email to the Free Press, criticized Epstein for not living in the district, though she lives only a few blocks away, in one of the odd, gerrymandered cut-outs of the district lines in Oakland County. (Her campaign says she is in the process of moving into the district; it’s also worth noting there is no federal rule that a congressman live in the district he or she represents.)

Each is spending much of their time trying to connect with enough voters that he or she might get ever-so-slight an edge in the primary: knocking on doors, talking up their support for or antipathy towards the Trump agenda. Raczkowski – who has a salesman’s verve and humor – jokes that it’s just like courting his wife: “She probably didn’t want to say yes to begin with either. I just had to keep knocking. … It’s only a failure when you don’t try harder.”

A lot of viable candidates in the race are trying very hard, with ads such as Epstein's touting her experience as a woman business owner in a year when women candidates are making gains across the nation, and Gupta's making a cut-out caricature of Trump, pointing out all the political differences between the two.

Expect much – much – more as Aug. 7 approaches.

As for gaming out what will happen, conventional wisdom has it that the more institutionally known figures – Kowall and Greimel – should have a slight edge, though the best-funded and most media-savvy newcomers – Epstein for the Republicans, Gupta and Stevens for the Democrats – would be expected to make a splash as well. Proven campaigners like Raczkowski and possibly even Kesto could crash the party. The others – including even Bentivolio, despite sitting in this seat before – are considered longer shots, though it’s clear anyone may have a chance.

And in a year when a 28-year-old first-time candidate can knock off a 10-term incumbent, does anyone really want to make a bet?

Eight years ago, when U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra, R-Holland, stepped down to run for governor, seven Republicans ran to replace him in his west Michigan district. The winner was U.S. Rep. Bill Huizenga, R-Zeeland, who, in the GOP primary, got 25.4% of the vote. His closest challenger, Jay Riemersma, got 24.8%. Wayne Kuipers got 21.8%; Bill Cooper, 19.3%. About 6,500 votes separated all of them.

Greimel, like all the others, thinks he’s got all the right qualifications to win and, at least among the Democrats, is the only one who can say he’s won before. But he’s not fooling himself.

“I think it’s going to be a very close primary,” he said.

Follow Todd Spangler on Twitter: @tsspangler

DEMOCRATIC, REPUBLICANS PRIMARIES IN THE 11TH DISTRICT
Date:
Tuesday, Aug. 7
Democrats: State Rep. Tim Greimel, Suneel Gupta, Fayrouz Saad, Nancy Skinner, Haley Stevens
Republicans: Kerry Bentivolio, Lena Epstein, state Sen. Klint Kesto, state Sen. Mike Kowall, A. Rocky Raczkowski
Background: A donnybrook, whichever ballot you pick up on primary day. With the impending retirement of U.S. Rep. Dave Trott, R-Birmingham, political handicappers have this as a toss-up race and a potential pickup for Democrats seeking control of the U.S. House. A list of qualified, viable candidates has shown up and in a field this big
and in a year when outsiders may be punching above their weight it's anybody's guess who wins. Stay tuned. 

Candidate websites:
Republicans:
Kerry Bentivolio: https://kerrybentivolio.com/
Lena Epstein: https://lenaforcongress.com/
Klint Kesto: https://klintkesto.com/
Mike Kowall: https://www.mikekowallforcongress.com/
Rocky Raczkowski: https://www.rockyworksforus.com/#
Democrats:
Tim Greimel: https://www.timgreimelforcongress.com/
Suneel Gupta: https://suneelgupta.com/
Fayrouz Saad: https://www.fayrouzsaad.com/
Nancy Skinner: https://nancypersisted.com/
Haley Stevens: https://haleystevensforcongress.com/