Disturbance to reach the Gulf of Mexico; chance of development increases

ORLANDO, Fla. — The disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean continues to meander over the Gulf of Honduras, just south of the Yucatan Peninsula. There is little chance for short term tropical formation due to strong wind shear and because it will be traveling over the Yucatan Peninsula, but conditions will start to gradually improve for its development.

Wind shear, defined as strong winds in the upper atmosphere, will limit development during the first stages. Some models are showing that wind shear is expected to weaken during the beginning of next week.

Weather conditions starting this weekend will turn more favorable as the disturbance interacts with a trough over the Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala. Also, most of the convection will be over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Water temperatures are warm and wind shear is forecast to diminish; this will allow the system to keep its natural flow process.

During the beginning of the hurricane season, the Gulf of Mexico and Eastern Atlantic - near the U.S. Eastern Seaboard – are the most favorable areas for tropical development. When systems form in the Gulf of Mexico during the month of June, most storms tend to be wide, ragged and most of the convection keeps to its eastern side (of direction).

WEATHER RANK UP: RAGGED JUNE STORMS, meteorologists Brian Shields & Irene Sans

STRENGTH OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS: SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE

On Friday evening the National Hurricane Center increased the chance for tropical development to 60 percent within five days.

As days go by, chances for development will increase in the short term, meaning within days, then hours. It could be possible that there could be a tropical depression or named-weak tropical storm by Sunday or early Monday, if this organization continues and atmospheric conditions become more favorable.

POSSIBLE TRACK

If the system were to develop, its track will greatly depend on its strength. If the system (once it gathers favorable conditions) stays as a depression of weak tropical storm, it has better chances of staying
farther away from Florida, and the Texan coast southward to Mexico should be the region to monitor this system closer; they will be the ones most likely impacted.

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If the system becomes a bit stronger, such as a strong tropical storm to weak category one hurricane, the storm will have better chances to be pulled closer to Florida. This is because the high pressure system over the Atlantic will retract eastward and allow the storm to shift eastward.

The next name of the 2017 hurricane name list is Bret. Tropical Storm Arlene developed during mid-April over the Central Atlantic. It became the second April-named storm in the satellite era (since the 1960s).

READ MORE: Pre-season Tropical Storm Arlene

We will continue to monitor the evolution of this disturbance very close. Our Eye on the Tropics section on wftv.com and on our free WFTV Weather app will be constantly updated, and our team of 6 meteorologists will also bring you prompt updates on all social media platforms.

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Tom Terry
Brian Shields
George Waldenberger
Eboni Deon
Rusty McCraine
Irene Sans

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