Tropical disturbance nearing Gulf of Mexico, rain event for Gulf states

by: George Waldenberger, Irene Sans Updated:

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A tropical cyclone is likely to occur in the Gulf of Mexico this week.

A broad low-pressure system pushing over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, 700 miles southwest of Orlando, has a high likelihood of developing into a tropical depression or even a named storm early this week after it re-emerges over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

As the storm system tracks north, it’ll bring a heavy rain and flooding threat to a large portion of the Gulf Coast. The exact track of this storm is very uncertain, with some models forecasting storm movement over Texas, some over the Florida Panhandle and others in between.

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Because of the ragged structure of the storm, a feature not uncommon with tropical or subtropical systems that develop during this time of year, heavy rains and flooding will be a threat regardless of how much the storm system can develop. Heaviest rains may fall near the storm’s center or along bands that can set up at distances away from the storm’s center, especially on the east side of it.


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If the storm tracks closer to Florida’s west coast, we’d likely have a wetter week ahead in Central Florida. Meanwhile, if the storm can track farther west, the end result could dry Central Florida out.

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A second storm system is also developing much farther away. It has been named Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. The use of the word potential in this naming system is new this year, and is being used for storms that aren’t quite organized yet, but may still affect land areas with tropical storm conditions within 48 hours. The areas that would be affected by this storm include Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad, Tobago and Grenada. All of those areas have been placed under a tropical storm warning.

 

 

While Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is no threat to Central Florida at this point, it is expected to organize into a tropical storm on Monday, and then weaken over the Caribbean midweek with no threat to Florida at this point. Meanwhile, the developing system over the Gulf of Mexico this week will need to be watched more closely over the next four days around Florida and the southeastern U.S.

Severe Weather Center 9's team of meteorologists will monitor both of these storm systems all week. You can follow them on Twitter and Facebook and at wftv.com.

 

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