Monitoring: Rain chances increase mid-week as a Gulf storm approaches Florida

A Gulf low-pressure system is heading to Florida, triggering some storm activity across much of the Peninsula on Wednesday through Thursday.

It's the same disturbance that brought the tornado outbreak in the San Antonio area Sunday evening and heavy storm activity to Houston on Monday morning.

This system belonged to the jet stream (in the upper levels of the atmosphere) and it became a cut-off low as it moved along the Gulf Coast states Tuesday. As it gets closer to Florida, the system will develop across lower levels; most models bring the surface low-pressure area across South Florida, but with enough instability, it could bring some heavier periods of showers Wednesday to the Sunshine state.

We are not expecting an all-day washout; in fact, showers will be scattered and on and off starting around noon Wednesday.

Since this system will be approaching Florida, any isolated showers Wednesday morning will be coming from the west. Most models are showing much of the activity to remain along the coast Wednesday afternoon, with showers arriving from the south.

"It is not often I have seen a storm take this particular track to the southeast," said chief meteorologist Tom Terry.

Overall, across the country, weather systems typically move from west to east. During this time of the year, individual storms tend to stay in higher latitudes and move to the northeast. This system in particular is heading to the southeast. This is due to a high pressure system situated over New England preventing the low from moving northward.

We will continue to monitor this system as it approaches Florida. If it shifts more to the south the rain chances could highly diminish. If the system remain closer to Central Florida, as it enters the state from the west, rain chances could significantly increase.

The cloud deck will be thick and stay put through Thursday evening.

Although this system has the potential to bring to strong showers, we are not expecting a decrease in temperatures after it passes. Temperatures will bounce back into the lower 80s by Friday and Saturday.

On Saturday, a cold front will push through Central Florida, bringing a slight chance for showers and a decrease in temperatures for Sunday morning, with temperatures in the 50s and Sunday afternoon highs in the low 70s.

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