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The tropical wave that exited Africa on September 22 is becoming better organized as it approaches the Lesser Antilles.
Hurricane hunters investigated the system on Tuesday afternoon and determined that it still lacks a well-defined center of circulation.
The tropical wave is becoming better organized and the cloud field extends at least 500 miles from its estimated center. This is a wide system, expected to enter the Caribbean on Wednesday.
No #TD14 or #Matthew yet, but conditions favorable for development next 24hours. Watching closely! #EyeOnTropics
Posted by Tom Terry, WFTV on Tuesday, September 27, 2016
Most models are in agreement through Friday keeping the system in the southern Caribbean at least as a tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane.
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At the moment the system is moving west northwest at 20 MPH, this fast movement it prevents it from intensifying. By Thursday, once over the southern Caribbean the system could intensify faster as it will be losing speed, having more time to feed off the warm Caribbean waters.
Currently maximum sustained wind are at 35MPH, and the National Hurricane Center continues to give it a 90% chance of becoming a tropical system within the next 2 days.
When the center of circulation gets identified, the storm could become tropical depression #14. If the hurricane hunters find a well-defined center and tropical storm winds, then the system will be named Matthew.
The systems trajectory become more uncertain past the weekend. At this time most models shift the system’s direction to the north passing over the Hispaniola.
The tropical system will for sure bring some significant wave heights (15 feet) to the southern offshore waters of Puerto Rico Thursday and starting Thursday night to the south of Dominican Republic. El sistema tropical traerá alto oleaje (15 pies) en mar abierto al sur de Puerto Rico el jueves y a partir del jueves en la noche al sur de la República Dominicana.
Posted by Irene Sans on Tuesday, September 27, 2016
Without a well-defined center and because the system is expected to slow-down the track of the system after Friday is still unknown. If you have a Caribbean vacation planed you should monitor the system closely and depending on your destination check with your airline or cruise.
Our team of meteorologists will continue to monitor the tropical wave closely and bring you updates about its evolution on WFTV Channel 9, WFTV.com, the WFTVWeather App and on all of our social media platforms.
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