Dr. Rick Foglesong

Review of Romney attack ad 'The Obama Plan'

Nov. 2, 2012

This 30-second spot from the Romney campaign offers "five reasons we can't afford four more years of Barack Obama."

Titled, "The Obama Plan," it warns of rising debt, taxes and gas prices, and major cuts to employer-provided health care coverage and Medicare.

"If Barack Obama is re-elected, what will the next four years be like?" the voiceover asks. "One, the debt will grow from $16 trillion to $20 trillion," says the ad, referring to a 2013 mid-session budget review from the Office of Management and Budget.  

Not mentioned: The debt will approach $20 trillion regardless of who is president.  Even under Romney running mate Paul Ryan’s plan, it would reach $19 trillion -- and that’s assuming all of Ryan’s unspecified spending cuts could be identified and implemented.

Two, "20 million Americans could lose their employer-based health care.” 

Here, the ad references a March 2012 report from the Congressional Budget Office.

But Romney’s use of that report has already drawn criticism from fact-checkers, who deemed it “false" for having “cherry-picked” the most extreme of CBO’s “alternative” predictions, without mentioning their primary “best-guess” estimate that (only) 3-5 million non-elderly persons might lose their employer health insurance under Obamacare.

Three, we’re told that "taxes on the middle class will go up by $4,000,” a well-worn Romney attack line.

In support, the ad cites a study by the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank with former Vice President Dick Cheney on its board.

But even that study did not say Obama “will” raise taxes, only that the deficit would create pressure for a tax hike, and AEI’s estimate did not take into account the deficit relief from ending the Bush-era tax cuts benefiting the wealthy, which the president proposes to do.

Fourth, “energy prices will continue to go up,” the ad declares, citing U.S. Energy Information Agency reports that gas prices have more than doubled since Obama took office. 

Back then, however, the recession caused gas prices to plummet, while starting Oct. 20 of this year, gas prices fell—for 10 consecutive days--in all 48 states in the continental U.S, according to Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst of the Oil Price Information Service.

Finally, the ad claims the Obama healthcare plan would make “$716 billion in Medicare cuts that hurt current seniors,” a frequent Romney assertion that fact-checkers have largely discredited. 

The ad references a Congressional Budget Office report, but inaccurately translates its findings, which predicted that health care providers - not patients - would lose money. And not mentioned: Romney running mate Paul Ryan included these same Medicare cuts in his budget proposal.

So overall, I rate this ad mostly false.