Remember last December? It seemed like every day we were telling you not only about freezing temperatures, but record low temperatures. Hard freezes and frosts were common. All of this added up to temperatures that were some 11 degrees below average in December 2010 -- falling just shy of the coldest on record in Orlando! This December, though, has been a totally different story. Through Thursday, temperatures have been nearly 3 degrees above average and there's no sign of the generally above average temperature pattern changing anytime soon.

The warmer December was not unexpected. We remain in a La Nina pattern which generally favors the jet stream to be located well to the north of Florida. This means that cold air gets bottled up across the northern United States and doesn't get much of a chance to come south. If it does, it's only in a briefly before the jet stream retreats back to the north. This December, not only has the jet stream been far to the north but the overall pattern has been progressive -- one in which systems move quickly from west to east. Without strong high pressure located over the north Atlantic Ocean, storms have moved quickly across the country and cold air has been locked up over the polar regions -- well to the north of the United States.

Our long range models show no signs of this pattern changing. In fact, some of the long range models point to an even stronger high pressure ridge over the southeast corner of the country. This means the jet stream could be pushed even farther north through the early to middle part of the winter leading to temperatures that will be even more above average! Of course, these are long range outlooks but there is no reason to believe, right now, that any prolonged stretch of cold weather is coming to the Sunshine State.

Have a great day and great weekend!

Brian Monahan