Another day, more Atlantic showers moving inland across central Florida! It wasn't quite as breezy today as it was over the weekend, but the pressure gradient created between high pressure to the north and low pressure to the east was still strong enough to produce wind gusts of 20-30 mph and pull in showers from the Atlantic. Those low, marine clouds will remain in place tonight with isolated showers before a shift in the wind -- and weakening high pressure -- sends drier and warmer weather in our direction.

First, the high: as the high moves toward New England it will weaken and shift position, allowing for a more northerly flow across the area. This means most of the shower activity and marine clouds will hug the coastline or stay completely offshore. As a result, temperatures will climb back into the upper 70s and low 80s for highs straight through Thursday afternoon. There is only a slight chance of a stray coastal shower tomorrow; farther inland, the wind shift will keep things dry and partly cloudy.

Now, the low: Low pressure has been trapped off Florida's east coast for the last several days and will continue to more or less sit in place. It's located over some fairly warm water with weak wind shear aloft, essentially a breeding ground for tropical development. The National Hurricane Center is giving the system a 60% chance of development over the next 48 hours; it would not be purely tropical however as, aloft, it resembles more of a "regular" area of low pressure we'd see during the cold season. So if the system develops, and it very well might, it would take on the name Subtropical Storm Sean. Even if the storm develops, it won't be an issue for central Florida (aside from continued high seas of 6-8+ feet the next couple of days) as it will eventually move northeast out into the Atlantic.

By the way, if you're wondering how common tropical development is in November: on average, one named storm forms every two years during the month of November!

Brian Monahan