...And then there are those days when none of the forecast models agree with each other! This is one of those days; good evening and happy Black Friday! I hope you all had a great Thanksgiving with family and friends. I'm shaking off my Turkey-induced slumber here on my "Monday," and have come in to a forecast mess for early next week!

Most of the time, our forecast models essentially agree with each other outside of some minor differences from model to model. Today is not one of those days! We've known for days now a strong cold front would march through central Florida early next week. So strong, in fact, that temperatures behind it will be in the 30s and 40s in the morning and only in the 60s in the afternoon. Those are the knowns. The unknown? Well, it's a big one: just one does the front come through?

The upper level disturbance with this system is so strong that it will "cut off," essentially removing itself from the usual west to east jet stream flow. This is usually a scenario where the models struggle mightily. Some of our forecast models cut this upper level disturbance off over the central Gulf coast late Sunday into Monday; this delays our cold front until Tuesday (or even Wednesday in some models!). The American model (the GFS) is by itself this afternoon and brings the front through late Sunday and early Monday. How's this for a swing on Monday: the American model implies morning rain and storms with afternoon highs only in the 60s while the Canadian and European models forecast dry weather with highs near 80 (if not warmer)!

What's a meteorologist to do? Ah, glad you asked. Time to use some of that meteorology to figure out what model is right! The overall pattern, with lots of upper level energy dumping into this system, favors the upper level low removing itself from the jet stream farther west. This is almost a classic scenario where the upper low cuts off to our west and our system moves east at a snail's pace. Also, there's already a strong upper level high centered over FL right now that's showing no signs of being in a hurry to move east; as long as it remains in place, the next front will be delayed back to our west. This forecast is going out on a limb in some ways, though; it's one that has what we call a high "bust" potential or high risk/high reward.

Here's how things play out:

Sunday: Dry and warm. It'll be partly cloudy with highs in the low 80s.

Monday: Clouds will increase by late in the day with a line of showers and storms developing in the Gulf. We'll have a 30% chance of rain by late in the day with highs in the upper 70s (could be warmer).

Tuesday: The front comes through a 40% chance of rain, mainly in the morning. It's mostly cloudy and windy with temperatures in the 60s.

Wednesday: Welcome to winter! MUCH cooler and windy with highs only in the mid 60s. 30s and 40s in the morning!

Stay tuned!

Brian Monahan