Good evening! The high clouds that lingered all weekend long across a lot of the area are lowering and thickening tonight with isolated showers now moving in from south Florida. In fact, as I type this at about 8 pm Monday, I'm watching the radar light up with some heavier showers, possibly storms, just south of Brevard County. Things are definitely changing!

First things first: the development of an organized tropical system is very unlikely. The National Hurricane Center sent a reconaissance flight into the developing area of low pressure over the southern Gulf but did not find a closed circulation. This wasn't surprising as there is lots of strong wind shear across this area; remember, strong upper level wind pushes thunderstorms away from a developing area of low pressure in the tropics which ultimately prevents real organization. In fact, late this afternoon you could make out the "lonely" low level swirl across the Yucatan with all the thunderstorms well removed to the east of the low. That doesn't mean, though, the deep tropical moisture isn't going to be an issue for us!

Showers and storms will become more numerous overnight and there's the potential for a strong storm or two at daybreak. As we push toward midday, the strong cold front will begin to move into the Gulf of Mexico and this will draw weak low pressure and all that tropical moisture northward. I expect a bit of a break in the rain at midday before the front begins its final approach toward central Florida by late afternoon. The forecast models are showing an awful lot of wind energy below 9,000 feet timed with the arrival of the front; this will allow for some particularly gusty storms late in the day and into Wednesday morning with the potential for isolated tornadoes. If low pressure tracks just to our northwest, this will amplify the amount of wind shear in the atmosphere and likely increase the tornado threat.

Most neighborhoods will see at least 1-2" of rain between now and Wednesday morning. The worst of the weather will pass before daybreak on Wednesday before the coolest air of the season moves in. In fact, by Thursday, it'll feel downright wintry (by Florida standards!), with a howling westerly wind, clouds in the sky across our western counties, and highs that will struggle to reach 70 degrees for some of us! More on that tomorrow.

Brian Monahan