Good morning! We’re getting close to transitioning into the drier months of the year; close, but not yet there and the stationary front that’s been nearby central Florida this week is a great reminder of that. That front is stuck because the subtropical ridge of high pressure, the main weather system that dominates our summertime weather, is still locked in place across the western Atlantic and that’s preventing the front from clearing the area. In fact, the ridge is going to get stronger the next couple of days and that will actually push the front back north as a warm front.

For today, the widest coverage of storms will be across our southern counties; the rain coverage today will be 50%. Storms and showers will continually affect the same areas, so like yesterday some areas could see well over an inch of rain. By tomorrow, as the front lifts north, we’ll work higher rain chances into our northern counties as well — gone will be the slightly drier air and cooler (evening) temperatures you’ve enjoyed the past night or two in parts of Marion, Sumter, and Lake Counties!

Over the weekend, the front dissipates to our north and the rain chance will drop a bit; it’s not a bad weekend forecast with scattered mainly afternoon storms (40% coverage) and highs back into the low 90s.

Eye on the Tropics: We’re tracking three named storms in the Atlantic — Hurricane Katia and Tropical Storm Maria in the Atlantic and brand new Tropical Storm Nate in the Gulf. Katia will continue to bring our beaches long period swells, high waves, and rip currents over the next day or two as it churns off to the east of Carolinas before departing out to sea. We’ll be watching Maria closely as it moves toward the eastern Bahamas about 5 days from now; at this point, the trough left behind in the east from Tropical Storm Lee is likely to begin moving east early next week and help push Maria to the east of Florida.

Tropical Storm Nate is not a very healthy looking tropical cyclone this morning; it’s very close to land in the south Bay of Campeche and tangled within the trough/front that’s keeping our area wet. Nate is likely to drift around in the southwest Gulf for the next few days, possibly becoming a hurricane as it does so. Some of our models take it into northern Mexico while others eventually pull Nate (or the energy associated with the storm) toward the central Gulf coast. Either way, it should not be a concern to central Florida.

Of note, with the development of Nate yesterday we’re just 2 days behind the record pace set during the hyperactive 2005 Atlantic hurricane season! Keep in mind, though, it’s all about impact and where these storms end up; fortunately, 2011 has been nowhere close to 2005 in terms of storm impact!

Brian Monahan