It was a windy start to the Easter weekend today as high pressure off the east coast created a tight pressure gradient and gusty wind; we had gusts along the coast this afternoon in excess of 30 mph! That added up to an elevated rip current risk at the beaches and also brought in plenty of low clouds from the Atlantic. Even with the onshore flow, we managed to stay dry though and the clouds that moved inland did not produce any rain.

Tonight, the wind has eased off and temperatures are dropping as I write this (about 11 pm). Clouds are still stubborn along the coast and there is a steady breeze, but inland it's mostly clear with much lighter wind. With dry air in place, it'll be a chilly start to Easter Sunday deep inland with lows from the metro and west dropping back into the 50s. There's an outside chance we could even wake up to some patchy 40s across parts of Marion County. Sunrise Easter Sunday is at 7:07 am.

For the afternoon, high pressure will weaken some and this means a much less windy afternoon is in the forecast. We'll still have an onshore flow, though, and this will bring in some clouds from the Atlantic. Overall, your Easter Sunday is partly cloudy with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. High pressure will remain in place late Sunday into early Monday; with a light wind, it'll be another cool start Monday morning with lows mainly in the 50s.

The Week Ahead: Over the last few days, we've transitioned to what's known as the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This generally favors a dip in the jet stream along the eastern seaboard. It's been a while since we've had a pattern like this; remember, March finished with nearly three straight weeks of above average high temperatures. The weak trough in the east will favor the passage of a couple of weak cold fronts during the week, which will keep afternoon highs in check. None of these fronts will be particularly moisture-laden though; at most, we have a 10% rain chance in the forecast with the first front on Tuesday and a 10% chance Thursday with another. The timing of these fronts is a little tricky since they're so weak, so you'll want to check back over the next couple of days as we fine-tune the forecast. Overall, though, plan on temperatures through the week ahead mainly in the upper 70s and low 80s with perhaps even cooler temperatures by Thursday and Friday (depending on just how deep the dip in the jet stream can get -- still a bit too early to make this call!).

Have a great night and a happy Easter!

Brian Monahan