Shifting Storm Track Later This Week 

Alright, some more progress today toward getting wetter weather into central Florida. Progress? What progress? I know, I know, most areas stayed dry yet again today with only the hint of a few sprinkles moving northward along the Brevard County coast. In fact, even as a type this, there are still some showers teasing central Florida just barely out of our reach over the water. Today marked the 39th consecutive day without measurable rainfall in Melbourne, putting the stretch that began last year in second place all time. The record longest dry streak is 46 days set in 1968-69, but there are some strong signs that we may not be setting a new record this year.

A pulse of upward energy moving across the tropics, a part of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, is helping to fuel a large area of active weather across the western Caribbean. The water vapor view is very unusual for this time of year, with a stream of dark greens (high moisture) moving northward into the Gulf. An upper level disturbance parked over the Yucatan right now will begin to move toward south Florida tonight, tracking over the peninsula tomorrow. At the same time, a weakening front will move into north Florida and this should be just enough to spark at least a 20% chance of a shower across our area. I know, it's not much. But we should see a few showers along the afternoon sea breeze in our eastern/southern counties Sunday afternoon. That chance of rain, albeit small, remains on Monday as the weak front moves through. It's later in the week, though, that things could get interesting.

That upward pulse of energy in the Caribbean will remain in place over the next several days, so tropical moisture should continue to be enhanced to our south. At the same time, while it stays warm here, all of our models are pointing to the southern/sub-tropical branch of the jet stream shifting to the south -- putting the storm track over the Gulf and the Florida peninsula. This would mean that, by week's end, a couple of fast-moving, but moisture laden systems should have the opportunity to move across the state. The first is slated to arrive late Thursday into Friday with another chance later in the weekend. I'll be watching the trend toward much needed rain closely over the coming days!

Brian Monahan