A February - Yes, February! - Tropical Disturbance 

Finally, rain! In fact, a lot of it (relatively speaking) in some locales! I'm just going through some of the rainfall totals from today and, in some communities, they were healthy:

• Dunnellon: 1.04"
• Winter Park: 0.87"
• Orlando International: 0.68"

The rainfall we saw today -- and are still seeing in some areas -- was much needed after the driest January on record for much of the area. As I write this (at 5:30 pm), we still have not seen measurable rainfall in Melbourne -- stretching our 2nd longest streak on record to 41 days (for now).

So, why so wet today? A weakening cold front is positioned across north Florida; this is providing some moisture. We also saw enough warmth today, temperatures climbed into the 80s for many of us, to allow the afternoon sea breezes to develop. The key, though, was an unusual February tropical disturbance to our south!

I blogged a couple of days ago about a pulse of upward motion moving across the Caribbean; Saturday, this produced a large area of disturbed weather over the western part of the Sea. Yesterday, an area of low pressure formed in the Yucatan Channel as the upper level wind relaxed just enough to allow the system to organize just a bit. For a time, yesterday, it appeared the system was trending toward becoming a subtropical depression or even a subtropical storm! As we expected, the upper level wind shear increased enough today to prevent any development, but we did see quite a bit of that tropical moisture stream northward over the peninsula, providing the fuel for today's showers and storms.

Had a classified subtropical system formed, it would have marked only the second time on record we've seen a February system in the Atlantic. The other? A tropical cyclone brought wind up to 65 mph to south Florida on Groundhog Day 1952. Tonight, the system is weakening as it slides east in the Atlantic and we'll see a decreasing chance of rain as the day wears on Tuesday.

Have a great night!

Brian Monahan