It may have interfered with outdoor plans the last couple of days and it certainly interfered with the running of the Daytona 500, but the rain that fell over central Florida the last couple of days was quite beneficial. Parts of the area saw close to two inches of rain in the heavier showers and storms; in fact, so much rain fell in Orlando that February 2012 will go into the record books with a precipitation surplus rather than a deficit! Other areas still remain below average for the month, but the upper layers of the soil have been moistened enough that, over the next few days, the fire danger is just a bit lower.

We measure the severity of drought with something known as the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI). It ranges from 0 to 800 and essentially represents the amount of moisture the top soil can hold. When this number is low -- near 0 -- the top soil is saturated and can't hold much additional moisture. When this number is very high, there is a significant deficit in moisture in the top soil and drought conditions are more severe. Over the last several weeks, the KDBDI has gotten as high as 600-700 across much of the area, meaning that anywhere from 6-7" of moisture (rain) was absent from the top soil!

After the rain earlier this week, you can see that things have improved. In fact, in Marion County, the drought index number is down to just 300-350! It does remain very dry in Orange and Seminole Counties overall, though, with the index between 550 and 650 -- meaning 5.5-6.5" of moisture is absent from the top soil. These numbers are still lower than they were last week, though.

Over the next few days, expect the drought index numbers to climb again as strong high pressure builds aloft and keeps the storm track well removed from central Florida. Outside of a few isolated sprinkles Wednesday, we'll be mainly dry and increasingly warm through the start of the weekend. Our next cold front with a chance of significant rain arrives Sunday!

Have a great night.

Brian Monahan