Row, row, row your boat... ok, not exactly, but it sure felt like you needed a boat to get around the last few days! Saturday was another day marked with heavy rain across central Florida; over two inches fell again today in many locations with even those who, relatively speaking, "missed out" on the heaviest rain today picking up close to an inch. Storms are finally winding down tonight as I write this (about 8:45pm), with the heaviest moving into east Orange, Osceola, and Brevard Counties. With the loss of the day's heating and the retreat of sea breezes, shower and thunderstorm activity will eventually fade away by late tonight. This is after, though, places like Melbourne picked up over an inch of rain in the span of just 15 minutes earlier today!

The recipe for heavy rain has been a simple one: an active stationary front draped across central Florida, tropical moisture (precipitable water amounts nearly 2" -- the higher this number, the more "juice" in the atmosphere), and -- in the case of today -- enough sunshine to produce the afternoon sea breezes. These three things in combination have been like wringing out a sponge across the area; 1-2"+ rainfall amounts region-wide have been common since Wednesday -- some areas have had close to half a foot of rain! A developing upper level disturbance to the west, though, is about to spell an end to our very wet pattern. That low will help lift the stationary front to our north tonight and, with it, the rich supply of moisture that's been around since Wednesday. There will still be showers and storms Sunday, mind you, but just our typical afternoon sea breeze storms -- the rain chance is 40%. Rain chances will drop to just 20-30% Monday and Tuesday as an upper level ridge builds over head. Air underneath upper level highs sinks and dries out; this works counter to the development of storms. So, overall, expect quieter (and warmer!) weather the next two or three days.

Eye on the Tropics: About a week ago, I alluded to the possibility of tropical development around the third week in June. Large scale atmospheric signals are clear that support, at the least, the development of more intense (and by more intense I mean any -- it's quiet in the Caribbean right now!) thunderstorm activity about a week from now. The Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, will be in a positive phase across the Gulf and Caribbean; this means the upward motion needed to support tall thunderstorms will be enhanced. At the same time, relatively higher pressure will be located over the northern part of the United States; this generally favors lower pressure across the tropical regions. The American forecast model has been hinting strongly for days now at "something" in the northern Caribbean or southern Gulf between the 16th and 22nd of June; whether this "something" is organized or not is still very hazy. Wind shear will be strong across the southern Gulf through late this week and that works against the development of organized tropical activity. There are still lots of questions, as you would expect several days out, but at the least plan on more activity in the tropics by this time next week!

Brian Monahan