It's becoming routine now, these afternoon highs in the 80s. Of course, highs in the 80s are routine in central Florida for much of the year -- just not in March! Our average high this time of year builds from the low to mid 70s at the beginning of the month to near 80 degrees at month's end. So far this year, though, 13 of the first 19 days of the month have come and gone with highs eclipsing the 80 degree mark. With all of that afternoon warmth, temperatures so far this month are running nearly 5 degrees above average; our monthly average temperature of about 71 degrees is on par with what we'd usually see in April! The only thing holding us back from challenging the all-time warmest March, at least at this point of the month, is that morning lows have actually been near or a bit below average across the area. That will change some this week with an onshore flow developing; we will have slightly warmer mornings that will help force the mean monthly temperature upward. By the end of the month, it is possible we will approach the all-time record but likely fall short.

There are some changes lurking over the next 12 hours, though. High pressure is building down the east coast of the United States tonight and this will tighten the pressure gradient along Florida's coast -- that is, the pressure will vary quite a bit over a small distance. This means the easterly breeze will get going starting tomorrow, as wind will gust above 20 mph along the coast. This will do a couple of things: first, seas will become choppy through mid-week (4-7 feet offshore, moderate to rough chop on the intracoastal) and the threat of rip currents will increase, especially at low tide. Over land, expect a slight increase in the chance of showers. The chance of rain bumps to 10% Tuesday, 20% on Wednesday, and settles back a bit to 10% on Thursday. Expect the best chances of rain along the east coast early in the day and a chance of rain west late in the day as the west coast sea breeze develops.

This pattern will remain locked in place over the next several days all because of what is known as a cut off low out west. This system, and all of the wind energy associated with it, is sparking the threat of significant severe weather this evening across the southern Plains and that threat will remain over the Plains and parts of the southeast through the rest of the week. With that low stuck out west, though, the warmth continues here with those slight rain chances!

Have a great night!

Brian Monahan