Have you noticed?  Lawns are turning brown, fields along the roadways are drying out, wildfires have been popping up in many local woodlands.  We're dry, we need rain and a severe drought is developing.

On Channel 9 News, we've been showing you the short and long-term rainfall shortages for Central Florida.  Here's a summary:

Short-Term Rainfall totals January 1  - March 8, 2013
Daytona Beach: 1.88"          Normal: 6.57"        Shortage: 4.69"
Orlando: 0.92"                       Normal: 5.58"        Shortage: 4.66"
Melbourne: 2.66"                 Normal: 5.61"        Shortage: 2.95"

Long-Term Rainfall Shortages 2010-Present
Daytona Beach: Over 22 inches short
Orlando: Over 10 inches short
Melbourne: Over 34 inches short

A severe shortage of rainfall is the main factor in our drought status, but there are other factors that must be considered when determining the threat for wildfires.  Among them, surface fuels i.e. the amount of dried vegetation on the ground.  Also, fires may develop and spread faster under windy, dry or very warm conditions.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) is a scale that characterizes the dryness of soil/duff layer on a scale from 0 (no rainfall deficit) to 800 (severe rainfall deficit).  The attached map posted by floridaforestservice.com shows KBDI, county by county for the state of Florida.  Normal values for the KBDI in Central Florida range from 281-530 in the springtime.  This is the time of year we tend to see the highest KBDI and hence the highest fire threat in Central Florida.

The current KBDI for the majority of the viewing area ranges between 500-650.  At 100 points higher than the springtime average, it's considerably higher than normal.  And over the next 2 weeks, there's not much rain in the forecast.  So the drought index will be going up even farther as we move toward the first day of spring.

The U.S. Drought Monitor uses rainfall deficits, along with other factors like soil moisture, streamflow, snowpack and historic data to develop broad-scale conditions.  They publish a report every week.

The latest report emphasized severe drought conditions developing in northeast Florida.  Jacksonville, Daytona Beach & parts of Marion County are included in this "Severe Drought".  Moderate drought conditions extend from southern Volusia County through Melbourne, Sanford, Orlando and Lake County.  With an extended period of dry weather ahead of us, it'll be interesting to see how far south the "Severe Drought" designation extends by mid-March.  Stay tuned.