Bold Week 16 fantasy football predictions: Will the reigning MVP finally return to form?

Our analysts reveal their boldest predictions for the fantasy playoff semifinals. Which will come to pass in Week 16?

The reigning MVP finally gives us the performance we've been waiting for

Aaron Rodgers has won the last two MVP awards but hasn't finished inside the top-10 fantasy QBs in any week this season. But that changes with a top-five finish this week against a pass-funnel Dolphins defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.

Opponents also have the second-highest pass rate (68 percent) when playing in Miami, and Rodgers finally has a healthy Christian Watson, Allen Lazard and Romeo Doubs together. In a matchup with the highest total (49.5 points) in a weekend slate filled with poor weather, Rodgers has his best fantasy performance of the year. — Dalton Del Don

Geno Smith delivers when we need it most

Over the past two weeks, the Kansas City Chiefs have been taken to overtime by Houston and they allowed 28 points to Denver, the league's lowest-scoring team. So I have absolutely zero doubt that Geno Smith and friends can put up a big number at KC (weather permitting), even without Tyler Lockett. Smith continues to lead the NFL in completion percentage (71.4) and he's thrown 26 TD passes.

The Chiefs defense, conveniently, has allowed the most passing scores in the league (30) and the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. Smith has every chance to deliver a top-three positional finish against a defense that's embarrassed itself in recent games. — Andy Behrens

A familiar face saves the day at running back

Who would have thought: Latavius Murray brings it home for fantasy managers. Murray received nothing but eye-rolls when he signed to this miserable Broncos roster but he's been more than solid of late. Murray has a 63% share of Denver's rush attempts since Week 12 and he's been efficient with those chances. He's averaging 4.85 yards per carry. That's not a plodder cosplay, that's just shockingly good play on an offense that doesn't make life easy for the backs.

The Rams run defense is still a good season-long unit on paper but without Aaron Donald, they're starting to flounder. Both Packers backs found success last week. As long as Murray gets 18 to 20 carries in this Christmas spot, he should be a clear-cut fantasy success story. — Matt Harmon

Overlooked Bucs receiver could make waves

If Julio Jones is ruled out again, I'm going to try Russell Gage in a deep league. Key words here: DEEP LEAGUE. This is not for shallow pools. But Gage has entered Tom Brady's circle of trust in the last two weeks, and Arizona's team looks ready for the golf course. The Tampa Bay/Arizona game is also free of weather concerns, which is most welcome on this blustery Week 16 slate. — Scott Pianowski

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