Fantasy Football Fact or Fluke: Was Ja'Marr Chase 'due,' or should you sell high?

A certain pair of socks, a synchronized chant on third downs, switching TVs if something 'bad' happens …these are a few of the superstitions that rule my sister's house during Bills' games. Bull Durham, and other movies, introduced the masses to some pretty wild superstitions in the baseball world, guaranteed to yield winning results if adhered to properly. We can laugh at them, we can go along with them, and in most cases, what's the harm?

In fact, there’s something to the idea that ritual enhances performance. Students who sit in the same seat to take a test as when they learned the material have an easier time recalling information. Visual learners take notes in a spatially similar way that makes categorization and recall easier for them. Applying rituals can make sure that all steps in a process are taken, that everything is done right every time.

When it comes to football, though, believing that your socks influence the outcome of a game or stat line falls into the territory of a causal illusion. We do it all the time, linking two or more unrelated events or outcomes together, despite a complete lack of evidence. Maybe you had a cold, coughing for days, then ate oatmeal one morning and didn’t cough again.

Is oatmeal a cure for the common cold now? Or had the cold just run its course?

Trying to find causal links between the events around us actually takes up a significant portion of our mental energy. It’s why you and I are here, trying to make sense of the fantasy performances that happened and how they will influence the next week’s stat lines.

This week, both before and during the games, I had a serious case of “he’s due” syndrome. You know — positive regression. When it comes to completely independent events, like a coin toss, there is no such thing as tails "being due" — it’s a 50/50 chance every time. But in football, when things exist far outside of the known mean, it’s reasonable to expect a correction toward that mean through play-calling and game planning. Of course, sometimes the previous mean is no longer the true mean, and identifying when it’s that time is no easy task.

"He’s due" had another meaning this week as we saw a few formerly backup or committee running backs come into their own. Let’s take a look at what we’ll consider fact or merely a Week 6 fluke.

Joe Burrow & Ja’Marr Chase, QB/WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Let’s be clear, Joe Burrow has not been bad. He was drafted around QB 7-8 this year and after Sunday’s explosion of fantasy points, Burrow is currently QB 5. Since Week 1, the four-interception game in which he still came out with 18 fantasy points, he’s had a pretty clean record (10 TD, 1 INT). While this was his best game of the season (300 passing yards, four total TDs), one of the difference makers has been his rushing touchdowns in the last two games. Another may be the offensive line finally coming together. Burrow is one of the most-sacked QBs in the league, and he still took three sacks vs. New Orleans, but they are giving him more time to make plays to his star receiver, Ja’Marr Chase.

This was Chase’s best game of the season by far and ended a string of four single-digit PPR fantasy games that had managers in agony. With seven catches for 132 yards and two scores, Chase led all fantasy players (except Burrow) in Week 6. He was due.

I don’t view this as a sell-high situation at all, but rather the team coming together after some offseason re-tooling of the O-line at last. With a super-favorable matchup against Atlanta next week, a defense that ranks dead last in sacks, seventh in fantasy points allowed to WRs and eighth to QBs, Burrow and Chase should find themselves among the top scorers again in Week 7.

Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets

Hall shattered any remaining doubts about who owns the Jets' backfield in Week 6. While New York appears to have swung and missed with Michael Carter last year, they got it right this year. The touches have steadily skewed toward Hall, who finished Week 6 with 20 carries for 116 yards and a touchdown and two receptions on two targets in a big win over the Packers. He made key plays and he made big plays including a 30-plus-yard touchdown run. He's scored in three consecutive games now and the latest performance has moved him up to RB6 on the season.

He's a success story for Novelty Bias and arguably the main reason the Jets are finally being taken seriously. The upcoming schedule (Denver, New England twice, and Buffalo) will continue to test the young team, but Hall is must-start material at this point.

Kenneth Walker, RB, Seattle Seahawks

We touched on Walker in the quick hit facts last week, but he certainly lived up to the promise in Week 6 with 21 carries for 97 yards and a score. He also caught three passes from Geno Smith. Only Saquon Barkley had more opportunity (22 carries and three targets), but Walker's efficiency was pretty good with his high volume (4.7 YPC). In a surprisingly low-scoring game, Walker (along with the Seattle DST) was the standout fantasy player as no wide receiver or tight end exceeded 45 yards (Noah Fant managed that mark).

If you were hesitant at first, you should be confident that Walker’s talent and opportunity are as advertised and start him every week.

Mike Gesicki, TE, Miami Dolphins

Both of Teddy Bridgewater's touchdown passes fell into Gesicki's hands during Sunday's loss to the Vikings. Perhaps his six catches on seven targets for 69 yards is the more confusing part of the line though. We were told early on that Gesicki was going to be blocking a lot more, and have less of a role in the pass game. That has generally been the case, outside of a touchdown catch in the Ravens game when everyone and their brother got involved in the scoring.

With TE being so scarce, and Gesicki having been such a good fantasy prospect a few years back, there's part of our brains that wants to believe this kind of line is sustainable. I mean, it wasn't like Jaylen Waddle (6/129) and Tyreek Hill (12/177) struggled in this one. I do think this game is the blip, however, and the abrupt QB change from Skylar Thompson to Bridgewater played a role in Gesicki's emerging as a fantasy star this Sunday. Plus, they might want to re-assert him in his blocking role given that the Dolphins suffered six QB sacks in Week 6, more than double their season average of 2.5 sacks per game.

I have to hope that protecting Tua Tagovailoa when he returns in Week 7 is top priority. In any case, I'm not running to insert Gesicki into any of my fantasy rosters based on this performance.

Quick hits: Fact

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots

With Damien Harris out, Stevenson was expected to step up and he did that with his 76 rushing yards and two TDs plus four catches for 15 more yards in a big Week 6 win over the Browns. This isn't something to expect every week, however, as the Pats prove over and over again that you can't trust any sort of pattern when it comes to their run game. Still, the talent is definitely there with Stevenson, so when the opportunity arises, he's likely to seize it.

Bailey Zappe, QB, New England Patriots

Mac Jones will be ready to return soon, and I'm not sure how I feel about it. Zappe has been excellent in his absence; making great decisions, few errors, correcting on the fly and winning games for the Pats. Throwing for over 300 yards in his second start and now with four touchdowns and only one interception (Jones had 2 TD and 5 INT) in his three games, Zappe also managed to make Hunter Henry relevant and rookie WR Tyquan Thornton a mini-star in his debut game. Personally, I like the way New England plays — balanced and efficient — with Zappe at its helm.

I’m just not sure what the case for Mac Jones is, from a statistical viewpoint. Hold Zappe in SuperFlex or 2QB leagues.

Juju Smith-Schuster, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

A classic "he's due" story come true, Smith-Schuster finally scored a touchdown. It wasn't enough to overcome the Bills, but after weeks of good targets, nice opportunity share and few fantasy points, he came through. In fact, his five targets were the fewest he's seen, but he secured them all for his first score and his first 100+ yard game of the season. It was the best KC WR stat line of the season so far (22.3 PPR points). Only Travis Kelce can be expected to score every week, but Smith-Schuster is going to have his big days in this offense too. Breathe a sigh of relief.

Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, New York Giants

Robinson was looking special in the preseason and in his return to the regular season, it seems like he's going to be a key piece of the NY Giants' 2022 surge. His line was nothing crazy — three catches for 37 yards and a touchdown on four targets — but it was the third-best line among Giants' WRs all season. Although Daniel Jones ranks 21st in pass attempts, there is room for a breakout receiver alongside Saquon Barkley this season.

I’ve raved about Brian Daboll’s coaching ability, specifically in tailoring the offense to the players’ skill sets. I see the arrows pointing straight up for Robinson, with the next four games providing a favorable environment for him and Jones to make waves in the fantasy world.

Quick hits: Fluke

Allen Robinson, WR, Los Angeles Rams

Robinson finally got in the end zone again, leading all Rams receivers by a narrow margin (17.3 fantasy points to 16.7 for Cooper Kupp and Ben Skowronek). It was a weird game, with Matthew Stafford only attempting 33 passes and completing a crazy-high 78.8 percent of them. The Rams have been saying they want to get Robinson involved, but although the target distribution was more even this week (all three receivers were between 5-8 targets), it wasn't a close game. When it matters, this offense is going to primarily run through Kupp. The Rams' offense is averaging only 17.3 points per game, making Robinson a risky start unless you're totally desperate.

Darrell Henderson, RB, Los Angeles Rams

Another split backfield has been clarified as Cam Akers was a healthy scratch for Week 6 and it sounds like he's played his last snap with LA. Henderson was just okay as the clear lead back, with 43 rushing yards and a touchdown plus two catches for nine yards. What's really sad is that this was the best RB stat line of the season for the Rams. Henderson will face the 49ers and Buccaneers in the next two games, so keep expectations strongly in check and look hard for better options for Weeks 7 & 8.

Chase Claypool, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

The aptly named Claypool caught all seven of his targets for 96 yards and a score from Mitch Trubisky on Sunday. Why aptly named, you ask? Because chasing points is what you'd be doing if you jumped to rely on Claypool going forward.

Maybe there are some QB-WR trends we can pick on in Pittsburgh, such as Kenny Pickett prioritizing George Pickens, but in this game, all three receivers saw 6-7 targets. Trubisky's game is more conservative, with fewer pass attempts to go around. I expect Claypool to go back to his more mundane 4/45 line in Week 7. He has his occasional big games to keep us on the line, but his baseline is not something I'm chasing in 10-12 team fantasy leagues.

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