Week 6 Fantasy Football Stats Notebook: Is there any hope for Najee Harris?

We are officially five weeks into the fantasy football season. Certain players are performing at or above expectations, other guys are coming in south of them. There's still plenty of time for certain fantasy teams to right the ship, but the ones who crushed their early picks are no doubt feeling the best. While there have been rocky moments for a few of the players unanimously drafted in Round 1 this year, I'm not sure anyone has had a worse runout than Najee Harris so far.

The reality for the running back position is that if you’re going to play in a bad offense, you’re going to need to see a ton of volume and be really good as an individual talent.

Through five games the Steelers have, without a doubt, been a bad offense. Pittsburgh ranks 30th in yards per drive and 32nd in points per drive. Getting Ben Roethlisberger out the door was not the cure-all for this team. I'm far from pleased with the offense Matt Canada has installed there and, of course, the offensive line has been a brutal problem.

Harris was drafted in the first round of fantasy outfits because he was supposed to get all the volume. That was the entire thesis of the Najee Harris 2022 play. That's now come into question with Mike Tomlin saying this week that they'd like to get Jaylen Warren more involved.

The Steelers have almost always just run out one back for a vast majority of snaps, but Warren might be earning more looks. On the season 21.1 percent of his carries have gone for 10-plus yards. Obviously, the following guys have carried the ball a lot more but Aaron Jones sits at 21.3 percent and Nick Chubb at 20.4%. Warren has been efficient with his opportunities.

Harris, at this point, has not. So maybe a little change of pace will help both.

The bigger deal, however, comes in the passing game. Warren has run a route on 33.6% of the team dropbacks since Week 6. Harris has run a route on 37.7%. Some of that is game script related but it’s pretty tough to not acknowledge that Harris’ profile has a lot more holes in it now than it did in August.

I can’t help but wonder if Harris is still playing through the foot injury he was dealing with in the preseason. It would explain a lot but it also wouldn’t help his cause for immediate production.

I'm struggling to tell myself a story for how this gets better for Harris any time soon unless rookie Kenny Pickett takes a big leap ASAP and elevates the offense. The Steelers have matchups with the Bucs, Dolphins, Eagles and Saints over their next four games. Those aren't any true cupcakes for a rookie quarterback.

The entire Steelers team is dealing with growing pains and that’s trickling down to all of the fantasy players in the offense. I’ve moved a ton of backs ahead of Harris in my rest-of-season rankings.

Jakobi Meyers ranks fifth in targets per route run (32.1%)

What does Jakobi Meyers have to do to get the fantasy community to acknowledge how good he is?

No matter how the offense looks, which other players the Patriots add or how low you people rank him, all Meyers does is just continue to out-kick expectations:

We all want receivers who get volume. Meyers just consistently works for targets because all he does is get open and catch the ball. Not much more you can ask for out of a wide receiver.

Meyers was drafted as a WR5 on most fantasy teams — if he was drafted at all. He could easily finish inside the top 24 at the position the rest of the way. He is legitimately good at the game. In an era where everyone is trying to find "the next" good big slot receiver, I have no idea why the crafty, 6-foot-2 Meyers never gets nominated.

This could be his breakout year.

Browns are 29th in rushing success rate allowed

The Browns have been smashed by running backs this season. The Falcons B-listers ran all over them in Week 4. Then both Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley rang them up in Week 5 withMyles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney back in the mix.

In Week 6, Cleveland will draw a matchup with a rising star in Rhamondre Stevenson.

The Patriots back ranks 2nd in yards after contact per attempt on the season. He’s been running aggressively and setting a tempo in the New England running game. He’s also inherited most of the passing-down work for this team. Stevenson has run a route on 51% of the team dropbacks all season. He’s up to 60% since Week 3.

If Damien Harris misses this game or is limited — and it's trending that way — it's hard to see how Stevenson doesn't smash in this game. He could be a top-five back on the board this week.

Raheem Mostert: 39% of his carries in Week 5 went for 5+ yards

It looks like the veteran has taken control of the Dolphins' backfield. Mostert collected 19 touches and he also ran a team-high 20 routes in Week 5.

That's no surprise. We know Raheem Mostert has familiarity with head coach Mike McDaniel and this offensive system. But despite the contract differences, he's just straight-up the better runner than Chase Edmonds.

We also know the problem with Mostert: Injuries. He’s here for a good time, not a long time.

So while he’s the clear-cut RB1 for Miami, you need to consider playing him every week. That’s especially true in Week 6 against a Vikings defense that is 27th in rushing success rate allowed.

Travis Etienne’s snaps have increased in four-straight games (37%, 43%, 51%, 53%)

As Graham Barfield noted, Etienne is playing well through this stretch. He's gained five-plus yards on 45.5% of his carries and is averaging 3.3 yards after contact per rush.

James Robinson is certainly a good back and has strengths that Travis Etienne doesn't bring to the table. However, he doesn't bring as much juice to that table.

It’s worth wondering if a Jaguars team that’s searching for more explosiveness begins to turn the tide even more in the direction of the former first-round pick. Etienne has been a disappointment in fantasy thus far but now might be the time to do a 180.

Devonta Smith since Week 2: 34% team air yards and 27.6% of targets

In that same span, A.J. Brown has 39.5% of the air yards and 26% of the targets.

To be clear, I know it’s silly to remove one random game to make a point. It especially makes Smith look good when you take out his zero-catch Week 1 outing. And none of this is to denigrate Brown, who is a top-eight receiver rest of the season and a guy I wish I drafted a lot more of in August.

However, this just shows that Smith is both good at football and not nearly as a far off from Brown as we might think.

It's amazing that analysts such as myself buried Smith in redraft rankings while being fully aware that he's such a talented receiver. The lack of imagination surrounding Jalen Hurts' possible upward trajectory and the Eagles opening up their offense caused many to miss out.

Regardless, I think Smith is now a top-24 wide receiver the rest of the way. Talent often creates opportunities for receivers. That’s been the case with Smith, who is a 1B receiver to Brown in this offense.

Josh Jacobs: 30.3% of his carries have been a first down or TD

He's second-best in that metric behind only Aaron Jones among backs with 60+ carries. Jacobs and the Raiders are on bye but he's been so incredible it's still worth talking about.

The entire fantasy football community owes Jacobs an apology — besides Andy Behrens, of course.

Jacobs was widely left to tumble down draft boards after dubious, but ultimately meaningless, signals like having his fifth-year option declined and playing in the Hall of Fame game spooked drafters. We feared a “hot hand” committee approach.

Well, Jacobs’ hand has been white-hot the entire season. Not many backs have run better than him.

Over his last two games, Jacobs has also run a route on 55.6% of the Raiders’ dropbacks and drawn 11 targets. The more you look at him, the more you think he might be an RB1 the rest of the way.

Rondale Moore averaged 2.3 air yards per target in Week 5

I was stunned to see Moore play mostly as an out-wide receiver in his first game of 2022 (Week 4 vs. Carolina). Mostly because I don’t think he profiles as that player given his size and route portfolio. But also because Kliff Kingsbury isn’t known to be flexible at all with his personnel.

After taking 71.4% of his snaps outside in Week 4, Moore was an 83% slot player in Week 5 with A.J. Green back from an injury. More notably, he averaged just 2.3 air yards per target. He was back to being almost purely a gadget receiver.

I think you can use a player like him this week against the Seahawks. Seattle ranks 28th in passing success rate allowed and was just ripped up by the circus-like Saints offense last week.

The long-term problem is that DeAndre Hopkins returns next week. A player like Moore — with that low of an average depth of target — needs a ton of volume to get home for fantasy. That's not going to happen with Hopkins back and the way Marquise Brown is playing.

I’d play Moore this week and then look to use him as a trade sweetener before Week 7.

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