Rain chances will be higher than average for this time of the year across Central Florida this week. There is a chance for tropical development over the Gulf of Mexico; if named, it would be Barry and would develop by the end of the week.
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Tuesday afternoon storms will mainly move from south to north. The direction of movement is guided by the low pressure system coming onto the Gulf of Mexico.
Rain and storm chances increase after noon. During the afternoon, the storms will move from the south, then by 7 p.m., any precipitation that is left over will move to the northwest.
THREATS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
Some storms will be persistent over the same areas, which may cause minor flooding, especially along the coast Tuesday afternoon. One to two inches are possible in a short amount of time if the storms park in a spot. Rain will cease by 9 p.m.
As with all storms, especially in Florida in the summer, lightning will be a threat Tuesday afternoon. If you are outdoors, make sure to go indoors as soon as you hear thunder. Lightning can strike over 10 miles from a storm's base.
Clouds and rain will keep high temperatures right on par with the average for this time of the year, between 90 and 91 degrees. Lows will be warm, in the mid-70s.
Easterly waves (tropical waves from Africa) form about 1/2 of named storms. The rest by disturbances in other areas, fronts “left overs”, etc.— Irene Sans (@IreneSans) July 8, 2019
EW become a notable source for tropical system ignition from late July on.
Dep/TS still need suitable conditions pic.twitter.com/IjcJq69ZBQ
There is a high chance that a tropical system may form by the end of the week. Either it will be a tropical depression or tropical storm; the next name on the list is Barry. It will be located over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a 70 percent chance for development in the next two days. The low pressure moved over the northern Gulf of Mexico late Tuesday morning, and conditions will become more favorable for it to develop tropically from now on.
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There are no models that show this system crossing over Central Florida. In fact, models show Florida to be protected by a high-pressure system (located over the Atlantic) that will likely be guiding this system well west of Florida. If this becomes the outcome, we would stay with the typical, summer-like pattern: hot, afternoon thunderstorms. In fact, there could also be some dry spells, or below-average rain chances, as much of the moisture will be pulled toward the tropical system's center.
If the system moves over the Florida Panhandle, which no model is calling for at this point, then Central Florida will experience higher rain and storm chances. We will continue to closely monitor the evolution of this system.
It’s hurricane season, and as we approach the next few weeks, we will be approaching the peak of the season and will likely see more systems trying to develop and systems developing. Now is the time to make sure you have a plan for when the season picks up.
We will continue to monitor the situation and bring you the latest updates on our free WFTV weather app, wftv.com and on Eyewitness News. Chief certified meteorologist Tom Terry will be live starting at 4 p.m. with the latest weather model runs.
Whatever develops in the Gulf, should move away from Florida & help drop our rain chance this weekend. I’ll keep you posted on any changes... pic.twitter.com/JNmsC3Yfj9— Brian Shields (@BrianShieldsTV) July 9, 2019
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- Chief meteorologist Tom Terry
- Brian Shields
- Irene Sans
- Kassandra Crimi
- George Waldenberger
- Rusty McCranie
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