• Pleasant evening; watching for possible tropical development

    By: Irene Sans

    Updated:

    It was a hot, muggy day across Central Florida, with mostly rain-free conditions. 

    Highs reached the low 90s across much of the area, expect similar conditions on Thursday, although we will notice more clouds and a small chance for an isolated afternoon storm. 

     

    Weekend's arrival of tropical moisture


    A tropical disturbance just north of Haiti will head toward Florida, bringing a high chance of rain late Friday and Saturday. This system could develop once it enters the Gulf of Mexico late this weekend into next week. 

     

    Invest 95L will bring a moisture surge to Florida, including Central Florida, starting on Friday. Expect 2 to 3 inches generally, with some isolated spots with 4 inches of rainfall through the weekend. The higher range of rainfall mainly focused over western Orange, Lake, Sumter and Marion counties. 

     

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    A couple tropical waves have emerged from Africa. One located about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has a 10 percent chance of developing within the next 5 days. Another tropical wave just coming out of Africa also has a 20 percent chance of developing over the next 5 days. Both, with a low chance for development in the long term and are also over 2,000 miles away from Florida and they represent no threat to the Sunshine state at the moment. Do not fall for the hype, many social media accounts post pictures of models without the context of model biases or focusing on trends of these models. 

    Models and weather patterns are giving a hint to an uptick for the possibility of tropical development during the last week of September into the first week of October. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is an energy wave that travels around the globe toward the east. This planetary wave propagates sinking or rising air. Tropical systems need rising air to keep their natural cycle. Models show rising air increasing across the Atlantic basin by the end of September. Of course, this is just an ingredient needed in the tropical recipe. We will have to wait to see where the tropical waves set up, the water conditions where they travel, Saharan dust, dry air and wind shear in a specific area. Stay informed and keep your hurricane plans handy. 

    We will continue to monitor and bring you the latest on WFTV.com, Eyewitness News and on our free WFTV Weather app

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