Monitoring the tropics: Chance for tropical development over western Caribbean

Cool season delayed, watching the tropics, still

ORLANDO, Fla. — The tropics are still showing small signals of life.

We are currently monitoring two areas that could develop next week.

The first area is the western Caribbean. At the moment, there is no tropical moisture in the area, but conditions could become more favorable for development in this area within the next five days. There is a 20 percent chance for this to happen and chances might continue to increase within the weekend.

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The low-pressure forecast to develop over the western Caribbean would move to the west-northwest.

A NON-TROPICAL LOW-PRESSURE

An area of low-pressure well to the southeast of Bermuda could develop as it moves to the southwest and then to the west early next week. The non-tropical low could be located between Bermuda and the northern Antilles next week.

A non-tropical low-pressure system simply means that the system will have formed over cooler waters, not acquiring tropical characteristics and it is usually a wider low-pressure system.

WHAT ABOUT THE OTHER ONE WE WERE WATCHING?

The tropical wave that we were monitoring at the beginning of the week continues to crawl and it is not entering the Caribbean.

This wave does not have a chance to develop since wind shear has really impacted the system. The wave will bring a high chance for showers and thunderstorms to Puerto Rico, where they have been impacted by heavy rains in the past few days.

We will continue to monitor the tropics. Hurricane season runs until November 30.

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