A tropical disturbance in the Central Bahamas is developing, and it could become a tropical storm by this weekend. For now, the National Hurricane Center has labeled this area as "Potential Tropical Cyclone 9" to be able to issue any needed advisories. This new labeling does not mean it strengthened or organized better, the NHC just does this for internal classification and be able to formally issue watches and advisories to nearby areas that could be threatened. Hurricane hunters are scheduled to investigate this area later on Thursday afternoon.
Models and weather patterns are giving a hint to an uptick for the possibility of tropical development during the last week of September into the first week of October. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is an energy wave that travels around the globe toward the east. This planetary wave propagates sinking or rising air.
Tropical systems need rising air to keep their natural cycle. Models show rising air increasing across the Atlantic basin by the end of September. This is just an ingredient needed in the tropical recipe. We will have to wait to see where the tropical waves set up, the water conditions where they travel, Saharan dust, dry air and wind shear in a specific area. Stay informed and keep your hurricane plans handy. During this time of the year, there are several tropical waves emerging from Africa.
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