ORLANDO, Fla. — Florida’s economy is still expected to grow over the next several years, but the pace is slowing as rising global uncertainty and energy volatility add new pressure to households and businesses, according to a new forecast from the University of Central Florida.
Economist Sean Snaith, director of UCF’s Institute for Economic Forecasting, said international instability is now becoming one of the biggest forces shaping Florida’s short-term economic outlook.
“Forget tariffs. The war with Iran is shaping the path of Florida’s economy in the near term,” Snaith said.
The latest forecast says Florida should continue outperforming the national economy through 2029, but growth is expected to moderate after several years of stronger expansion.
A recent ceasefire in the Middle East may help stabilize some short-term conditions, Snaith said, but uncertainty remains.
“What matters now is whether it holds and what economic damage has already been done,” he said.
Energy prices are expected to be one of the first places Floridians feel the impact. Fuel costs rose during the conflict, adding pressure for consumers still dealing with elevated prices after years of inflation.
Economists say prolonged disruptions to energy production or shipping could quickly affect transportation, agriculture, health care and consumer goods, increasing the risk of slower economic growth.
Even before the latest geopolitical concerns, Florida’s economy had already been moving into a slower phase.
The forecast projects Florida’s real gross state product will grow an average of 2.3% annually from 2026 through 2029, slowing through 2028 before picking up slightly.
By 2029, Florida’s nominal gross state product is expected to exceed $2.2 trillion.
The labor market is also expected to remain relatively strong.
Florida’s unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 4.3% this year before gradually falling to 4% by 2029, staying below the national average.
Job growth is expected to average 0.6% annually during that same period.
Housing continues to show signs of adjustment after years of rapid price growth.
The report says home prices have softened modestly, activity has slowed and affordability remains a challenge, especially as higher mortgage rates and insurance costs continue to weigh on buyers.
Housing starts are expected to decline in the near term before gradually increasing again by 2029.
The forecast also projects real personal income growth in Florida will average 3.1% annually through 2029, outpacing national growth.
Snaith, a nationally recognized forecaster, has previously been cited by Bloomberg News as one of the nation’s most accurate economic forecasters.
Click here to download our free news, weather and smart TV apps. And click here to stream Channel 9 Eyewitness News live.
©2026 Cox Media Group
