Eyes on the Gulf of Mexico for possible tropical development this weekend

ORLANDO, Fla. — The atmosphere is becoming more favorable for the development of a tropical system this weekend just north of the Yucatan Peninsula in the Gulf of Mexico.

During the beginning of the hurricane season, the Gulf of Mexico and Eastern Atlantic - near the U.S. Eastern Seaboard – are the most favorable areas for tropical development. When systems form in the Gulf of Mexico during the month of June, most storms tend to be wide, ragged, and most of the convection to its eastern side (directionally).

WEATHER RANK UP: RAGGED JUNE STORMS, meteorologists Brian Shields & Irene Sans

STRENGTH OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS: SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE

Currently a tropical wave is approaching the Gulf of Honduras and this will interact with a trough that could aid tropical development. The National Hurricane Center, as of Thursday afternoon, noted a 50 percent chance of tropical development within 5 days.

In the short term, within two days it is unlikely to develop. Weather conditions starting Saturday will quickly turn more favorable as the disturbance interacts with a trough over the Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala. Also, most of the convection will be over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

Wind shear, strong winds in the upper atmosphere, will likely limit development during the first stages. Some models are showing that wind shear is expected to weaken during the beginning of next week.

If the system were to develop, its track will greatly depend on its strength. If the system (once it gathers favorable conditions) stays as a depression of weak tropical storm, it has better chances of staying
farther away from Florida, and the Texan coast southward to Mexico should be the region to monitor this system closer; they will be the ones most likely impacted.

If the system becomes a bit stronger, such as a strong tropical storm to weak category one hurricane, they the storm will have better chances to be pulled closer to Florida. This is because the high pressure system over the Atlantic will retract eastward and allow the storm to shift eastward.

The next name of the 2017 hurricane name list is Bret. Tropical Storm Arlene, developed during mid-April over the Central Atlantic. It became the second April named storm in the satellite era (since the 1960s).

READ MORE: Pre-season Tropical Storm Arlene

We will continue to monitor the evolution of this disturbance very close. Our Eye on the Tropics section on wftv.com and on our free WFTV Weather app will be constantly updated and our team of 6 meteorologists will also bring you prompt updates on all social media platforms.

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Tom Terry
Brian Shields
George Waldenberger
Eboni Deon
Rusty McCraine
Irene Sans

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