• NOAA calls for an extremely active season ahead; updated forecast

    By: Irene Sans

    Updated:

    Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration updated the hurricane season forecast and called for a 60 percent chance of an above normal season. The first forecast for the season was released in May and called for a 45 percent chance of an above normal season. The chances for a near-normal season have also decreased from 35 percent to 30 percent, and chances for a below-normal season decreased, from 20 percent to 10 percent.

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    There could be 14 to 19 named storms, of which five to nice could become hurricanes and two to five could become major hurricanes. These new numbers include the six named storms the Atlantic Basin has had this season already. Two of these storms, Cindy (in June) and Emily (in July) impacted the United States.

    This forecast will translate to an extremely active season, perhaps most active since 2010.

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    Atmospheric and oceanic conditions have become more favorable for storm development. The waters are warm enough to feed and sustain storm activity and wind shear is forecast to become calmer, allowing the natural cycle of a storm to continue.

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    We have also seen more tropical waves coming out of Africa, even early in the season. Also, we are heading upslope in the season, this means that we are approaching the time when, statistically, there are more storms developing or occurring. The peak of the hurricane season is September 10-11.

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    It is important to highlight that these forecasts do not mention or point possible landfall areas. These types of forecast should be used as guidance. Remember, it only takes one tropical storm or hurricane to impact your location to make it a busy season for you. Also, this or any season forecast does not discuss locations of landfall, as those are hard to predict without a system to analyze.

    The time to prepare is now.

     

     

     

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