Eye on the Tropics

Tropical Storm Nate forms in the Caribbean

By Irene Sans, WFTV.com
By Irene Sans, WFTV.com

MIAMI — Update: Thursday 9:00 a.m.

Tropical Storm Nate formed early Thursday morning in the Caribbean.
Winds are at 40 mph and it's moving northwest into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.
Tropical Storm Nate will not come near Central Florida. However, the big issue Thursday will be a tropical wave that will bring heavy rain and some flooding to the area, according to certified meteorologist Brian Sheilds.

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Tropical Depression #16 continues to move very slowly to the northwest as it nears Nicaragua. It will likely intensify during the next 48 hours, bringing dangerous conditions to Nicaragua, Honduras, western Cuba and the Yucatán. It is expected to reach the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. 

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There is a possibility that the system could go through rapid intensification, while in the Caribbean due to the warm waters. If this happens the tropical depression could quickly gain hurricane status in a matter of hours. 
TD 16 is likely to make landfall near Bilwi, Nicaragua Thursday morning. By Thursday evening, it will be over the warm Gulf of Honduras possibly strengthening further. 
The current storm´s track takes it between Cuba and the Yucatán Peninsula, which would help it keep its strength.
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The current track, at four to five days out from making U.S. landfall, takes Nate to the Florida Panhandle, but 5 days out the margin of error is of about 240 miles. Gulf residents are urged not to be set on a point of landfall because the forecast will change. Also at this point, it is not known how wide this system will expand, impacts may go well beyond its center point.
The Bermuda high will be in control of the storm's ultimate path.
The GFS model shows a stronger high, which would place Nate as a tropical storm or category 1 hurricane, over Louisiana on Sunday morning.
The European model, a more reliable guidance model, brings a strong category 1 or 2 hurricane to the Florida Panhandle by Monday morning. If the Bermuda High weakens, it will take Nate closer to the European model output. 
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HOW'S THE GULF OF MEXICO? WILL IT HELP?
Once Nate gets to the Gulf of Mexico there will be more factors holding the storm at a steady strength than intensifying it.
First, there is a chance that strong shear could limit its strengthening. Second, although the waters are still warm, they are not as warm as in the Caribbean, so the system will not have as much fuel to feed from. With this current outlook we are not expecting the system to be a major category storm meandering in the Gulf of Mexico. Another positive aspect to this system is that there are no current signs of slowing down, or 'getting stuck' somewhere along the Gulf coast. So we are not expecting the storm to cause catastrophic flooding as Harvey did. 
I must remind you that it only takes one storm to cause damages to make it a significant event for you. Do not underestimate a tropical storm or a lower category hurricane. Florida is in the dirty side of the storm, meaning more shower and storms, winds and the chance for tornado development.  For Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, impacts will vary greatly depending on landfall location and strength.
We will closely monitor the evolution of this system and bring you prompt updates on our Channel 9, all of our digital and  social platforms and on our free WFTV weather app. 
Read: Hurricane Irma: FEMA opens disaster recovery center in Orlando

Pronóstico en español por nuestra meteoróloga Irene Sans

Depresión tropical #16 -pronto Nate- se desarrolla en el Caribe. Una gran diferencia entre los modelos meteorologicos. Impactos a Florida dependerán de cuanto se acerque (o no) al estado.

Posted by Irene Sans on Wednesday, October 4, 2017

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