Eye on the Tropics

TS Nate leaving Honduras; rapid intensification before hitting Yucatan

By Irene Sans, WFTV.com
By Irene Sans, WFTV.com

11 p.m. update: 

Intact Tropical Storm Nate about to enter the warm northwestern Caribbean. It is very likely that the storm will intensify before reaching the Yucatán Peninsula, reaching category 1 hurricane, on Friday evening. 

READ: Tropical Storm Nate blamed for 22 deaths; threatens US coast

>>> See Current track <<<

Earlier on Thursday:
High altitude NOAA’s G-IV planes are sampling the area around Nate this afternoon. The planes took off from Lakeland, Florida just after 1:30 p.m. Thursday afternoon. The data collected via drop sondes will go into the forecast models. Once Nate gets into the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the data has been collected there could be some slight shift on the tracks.

>>> Live Doppler 9 HD radar <<<

The Gulf of Honduras has very warm waters and very low shear which can lead Nate to rapidly intensify to a hurricane within the next 36 hours, before the start of the weekend.

Read: Hurricane Irma: FEMA opens disaster recovery center in Orlando

The current track takes Nate very close to Cancún, México Friday evening, possibly as a strong tropical storm or perhaps even a category 1 hurricane. By Saturday the hurricane is expected to be over the Central Gulf of Mexico traveling north. The models have trended a bit more west, and the National Hurricane Center places the Category 1 Hurricane between Mississippi and Louisiana on Sunday morning. There is plenty of time for the track to shift in either direction, though.
The Bermuda high will be in control of the storm's ultimate path.
The GFS model shows a stronger high, which would place Nate as a category 1 hurricane, over Louisiana and Texas border on Sunday morning.
The European model, a more reliable guidance model, brings a category 1 hurricane to Mississippi/Louisiana by Sunday afternoon, due to a slightly weaker Bermuda High.
Several guidance models have a bigger difference in timing. From a meteorologist perspective, the system may slow down a bit, delaying U.S. landfall if the high starts to weaken, holding the system steady for a little while.
This is a system that the needs to be monitored by residents along the Gulf States. Seems that Florida is decreasing the chances of experiencing direct impacts by Nate. But if the tracks shift eastward in the following days, we could experience more wind, rain and even the possibility of tornado development, if the system gets close enough, or expands enough to bring outer rain bands.
One positive is that models are trending closer, this means that there is fair confidence in the track at the very least.

It is important to keep in mind that at day four of the track, the center of the storm may vary almost 200 miles. That's reason we give to monitor this system closely. Also, Nate's impacts may go well beyond the cone, especially if the system expands or gets 'sheared.'

What could happen to Nate in the Gulf of Mexico?

Once Nate gets to the Gulf of Mexico there will be more factors holding the storm at a steady strength than intensifying it.
First, there is a chance that strong shear could limit its strengthening. Second, although the waters are still warm, they are not as warm as in the Caribbean, so the system will not have as much fuel from which to feed from. With this current outlook we are not expecting the system to be a major category storm meandering in the Gulf of Mexico. Another positive aspect to this system is that there are no current signs of slowing down, or 'getting stuck' somewhere along the Gulf coast. So we are not expecting the storm to cause catastrophic flooding as Harvey did. 
I must remind you that it only takes one storm to cause damages and to make it a significant event for you. Do not underestimate a tropical storm or a lower category hurricane.


How will shear impact Nate?
If Nate becomes better organized in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and its symmetry survives the Yucatán, it will quickly deteriorate once it interacts with shear.
Looking at the possibility of this setup, it is very likely for Nate to look more like a "June Storm", shifting most, if not all, of its clouds to the east, over the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico.

CURRENT RAINFALL & FLOOD
Today's rain is not associated with Nate. Gusty winds have caused flooding in the intracoastal in Cocoa since Sunday in combination with the King Tides. A tropical waves traveled over South Florida, but much of its moisture has brought rainy conditions since early Thursday morning. Rivers' levels have been moderate to high since Hurricane Irma. Strong winds and the recent rainfall are not alleviating the flooding which is affecting some residents near-by. 
Winds are still gusting strong. Reports in Titusville and New Smyrna beach at 41 mph and 43 mph, respectively. Winds will diminish slowly overnight. Rain chances will slightly decrease to 60 percent for Friday across Central Florida. 
We will closely monitor the evolution of this system and bring you prompt updates on Channel 9, all of our digital and  social platforms and on our free WFTV weather app. 
Pronóstico en español por nuestra meteoróloga Irene Sans

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