ORLANDO, Fla. — Most people across the state know about the Casey Anthony case and the majority thinks she is probably guilty, but WFTV did find one city that is not following the case much at all and it's not the city you might have expected.
SEE THE RESULTS OF WFTV'S EXCLUSIVE POLLS: West Palm | Orlando | Jacksonville | Pensacola | Tampa VIDEO REPORT: WFTV Analyzes Potential Casey Jurors Pt. 1
Jose Baez tried to move Casey's trial to southeast Florida to avoid pretrial exposure, but WFTV's exclusive poll shows he should have looked in the opposite direction. WFTV found amazingly low awareness in Northwest Florida.
In the Pensacola region, only 18 percent of potential jurors are very familiar with the Casey Anthony case. Compare that to a third of the potential jurors in Jacksonville, Tampa Bay and West Palm Beach, and 58 percent in Orlando.
WFTV jury expert Randy Fisher says jury selection in Pensacola is the best-case scenario for Casey Anthony's defense, because she wants limited pretrial exposure.
"It typically tends to create a perception of guilt in the defendant, since most of the media coverage tends to come from the prosecution," Fisher said.
In all five regions WFTV polled, potential jurors said they get most of their information about Casey Anthony through TV news reports.
There is only one broadcast TV station in Pensacola. When WFTV searched its website for Casey Anthony news, it found no results found. No wonder 38 percent of Pensacola knows little about the case.
That's a higher percentage than West Palm Beach, Jacksonville and Orlando combined.
"If we're trying to get a fair trial for Casey Anthony, I would argue this is where we need to be," legal analyst Bill Sheaffer said.
Potential jurors across the state scored the strength of the state's case on a scale from 1 to 10, with 1 being weak and 10 a slam dunk. They gave it a 7.6 in Orlando, 7.2 in Jacksonville, Tampa Bay and West Palm Beach, and a 6.8 in Pensacola.
"The respondents in Pensacola simply know less about the case and therefore know of less evidence the prosecution has," Fisher said.
WFTV's legal experts say Casey's worst-case scenario for jury selection could be Jacksonville. There, 95 percent say she's guilty or probably guilty. That's even higher than the 93 percent in Orlando who think she's guilty.
And Jacksonville is far more likely to impose the death penalty. WFTV learned that 61 percent of the respondents support the death penalty for defendants convicted of first-degree murder.
That's 20 to 30 percent higher than every other region that was polled. Opinions on the death penalty vary greatly from city to city.
CITY LEAST/MOST LIKELY TO GIVE CASEY THE DEATH PENALTY
Casey Anthony's murder trial starts Monday, May 9, with jury selection somewhere in Florida. While WFTV can't name the city, it can say what potential jurors are thinking.
VIDEO REPORT: WFTV Analyzes Potential Casey Jurors Pt. 2
Only WFTV polled thousands of people across the state, and Kathi Belich found where Casey Anthony may be least likely to get the death penalty if convicted. It's not Jacksonville, because Northeast Florida strongly supports the death penalty.
But WFTV's poll shows two other areas that do not.
The Pensacola region is least connected to news about the Casey Anthony case, and has least interested in following it.
"This is where she is least likely to get the death penalty from a jury of her peers," WFTV legal analyst Bill Sheaffer said.
In Pensacola, 29 percent of potential jurors favor capital punishment for first-degree killers. Compare that to 61 percent in Jacksonville. West Palm Beach aligns more with Pensacola at 33 percent. Orlando and Tampa Bay fall in between with 41 and 43 percent.
Meanwhile, 11 percent of potential jurors in the Pensacola area oppose capital punishment under any circumstances. That's three points higher than the politically liberal community of West Palm Beach.
"I was surprised attitudes toward the death penalty were so strikingly different," Fisher said.
Based on WFTV's poll results, Fisher says a jury from Pensacola or West Palm Beach would be less inclined to recommend death if Casey is convicted, but it depends on the makeup of the jury.
WHAT IS THE PERFECT JUROR PROFILE?
WFTV has a profile of the perfect juror for the defense and the state. Our survey shows Judge Belvin Perry was wise to move jury selection out-of-town.
The case is over-exposed in Central Florida, but Casey Anthony faces an uphill battle all across the state. The cards are stacked against Casey no matter where the jury comes from.
VIDEO REPORT: WFTV Analyzes Potential Casey Jurors Pt. 3
In Pensacola, 71 percent say she's certainly guilty or likely guilty of killing her daughter Caylee. It's 93 percent in Orlando, 95 percent in Jacksonville and Tampa Bay, and 97 percent in West Palm Beach.
Those who said "likely" guilty also said they could still be fair if seated on the jury, but WFTV legal expert Bill Sheaffer said that's not how it works.
"If they have a fixed opinion and say they can put that aside, I know they are not being truthful. You just know that and you can't risk having them on the jury. They're out," Sheaffer said.
But Jose Baez can't strike 95 percent of the jury pool.
"You don't get the best juror, you get the best juror you can, because a whole lot of other jurors would be much worse," Sheaffer said.
WFTV jury expert Dr. Randy Fisher profiled the type of juror the defense should want, based on WFTV's poll.
"The ideal potential juror would be a male who doesn't know much about the case, hasn't discussed the case," Fisher said.
An ideal juror for the defense should also mildly oppose the death penalty, but not so much to be disqualified. He could have a post-graduate degree (as WFTV's poll showed those with advanced degrees weren't as sold on the state's case). The defense should not want jurors with prior jury experience.
"There's something about going through the jury process that changes one and makes one more conviction-prone," Fisher said.
Dr. Fisher said the state's ideal juror is a woman who already knows about Casey Anthony and has served on a jury before.
"Women are primarily responsible for child-rearing and tend to react negatively to the facts of Caylee Anthony's death," Fisher said.
Dr. Fisher said race and age should not be factors for either side in selecting jurors and, he said, WFTV's poll shows that people with young children, grandchildren and no children equally believe she's guilty.
Previous Stories: May 6, 2011: Appeals Court Returns Opinion, Casey Trial Won't Be Delayed May 6, 2011: Casey's Parents Will Be Allowed In Court For Trial May 6, 2011: Casey's Defense Loses Jury Selection Consultant May 6, 2011: Casey Anthony's Mom Schedules Jailhouse Visit May 6, 2011: Motion For Extension Filed By Casey Defense Denied May 6, 2011: Who Could End Up On The Jury For Casey's Trial?