TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Florida counties could face significantly higher hurricane recovery costs while collecting less property tax revenue if two proposals take effect, according to a new analysis from the Florida Policy Institute.
The organization examined what could happen if voters approve Amendment 3, a proposed amendment to the Florida Constitution, in November and the federal government reduces the share of certain disaster expenses reimbursed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
Neither proposal is currently in effect. The report models how their combined effects might have affected five Florida counties following major recent hurricanes.
Amendment 3 would raise the homestead exemption for non-school property taxes to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028. It would also create a process for governments to increase the exemption further and lower the annual assessment-growth cap for non-homestead properties from 10% to 5%, according to the Florida Division of Elections.
A Florida Senate analysis says the amendment is expected to significantly reduce local government revenue, although the total financial effect remains undetermined. The Florida Policy Institute estimates local governments would lose $12 billion.
At the same time, the FEMA Review Council has proposed reducing the standard federal share of Public Assistance reimbursements from 75% to 50%. The program helps governments pay for debris removal, emergency protective measures and repairs to public infrastructure following disasters.
The recommendation has not taken effect and would require federal action.
The institute calculated how much five counties could have faced in additional costs if FEMA had covered 50% of eligible expenses from major hurricanes, then combined those costs with its estimate of recurring revenue losses under Amendment 3.
Its analysis found the combined financial effect would equal:
- 143% of Bay County’s annual property tax levy following Hurricane Michael
- 107% of Lee County’s levy following Hurricane Ian
- 64% of Sarasota County’s levy following Hurricane Milton
- 39% of Monroe County’s levy following Hurricane Irma
- 33% of Taylor County’s levy following Hurricane Helene
“In a hurricane-prone state like Florida, FEMA cuts, along with the drastic reduction in property tax revenue expected under Amendment 3, would be a recipe for disaster,” Florida Policy Institute CEO Sadaf Knight said.
The figures are hypothetical and do not represent bills currently being charged to the counties. The analysis applies the proposed 50% reimbursement level to past disasters to illustrate how the proposals could affect future recovery efforts.
Amendment 3 needs support from at least 60% of voters to pass. If approved, it would take effect Jan. 1, 2027.
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