ORLANDO, Fla. — The much-anticipated 2026 El Niño has begun, likely producing widespread changes in global weather patterns over the next several months.
Meteorologists from the Climate Prediction Center declared on Thursday morning that an El Niño has begun.
Water temperatures in the Central Pacific, where El Niño originates, are estimated to be 0.7° Celsius above average.
Global atmospheric conditions are also responding to these changes, indicating that an El Niño has taken hold.
An El Niño is when water temperatures in the Central Pacific are warmer than average. This changes jet stream patterns across the planet, producing significant shifts in weather.
The El Niño is expected to remain in place for the remainder of 2026 and into early 2027, with a 98% chance that it will continue into late winter.
This El Niño is forecast to be one of the strongest on record.
The latest guidance from the Climate Prediction Center gives a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño, or sometimes called a “Super El Niño,” by early winter.
Locally, El Niño will likely produce significant weather changes for the rest of 2026.
El Niño patterns help increase wind shear across the tropical Atlantic in the summer and early fall.
This wind shear helps reduce tropical activity in the Atlantic, and a below-average hurricane season is forecast for 2026.
The El Niño pattern also pushes the jet stream over Florida and the Gulf Coast states in winter, greatly increasing rainfall and the severe storm threat for late 2026 into early 2027.
Stay with Severe Weather Center 9 for the latest on El Niño and its impacts throughout 2026.
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