11 p.m. update:
READ: Tropical Storm Nate blamed for 22 deaths; threatens US coast
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It is important to keep in mind that at day four of the track, the center of the storm may vary almost 200 miles. That's reason we give to monitor this system closely. Also, Nate's impacts may go well beyond the cone, especially if the system expands or gets 'sheared.'
What could happen to Nate in the Gulf of Mexico?
How will shear impact Nate?
If Nate becomes better organized in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and its symmetry survives the Yucatán, it will quickly deteriorate once it interacts with shear.
Looking at the possibility of this setup, it is very likely for Nate to look more like a "June Storm", shifting most, if not all, of its clouds to the east, over the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico.