ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center is still monitoring an area of interest in the northern Gulf that could develop into the next tropical low.
The disturbance has a 20% chance of becoming a tropical system over the next seven days.
Many factors need to align for this system to develop into a tropical storm. First, it needs to slow down and take advantage of the warmer waters in the northern Gulf. Currently, the water temperatures range from the mid to upper 80s between Panama City and the Big Bend. Secondly, the front moving across the country has to stall in the correct position in order for the low to spin off and become tropical.
If the system does organize beyond a tropical depression, it would become Bertha.
There is a lot of uncertainty with this system. There are even some models suggesting that the area of interest could backtrack towards Louisiana, where it would have a chance to develop more thoroughly than if it moved towards Florida.
Another comparable would be Chantal from last year. This could become a weak tropical low, bring lots of rain to Central Florida and then develop fully in the Atlantic after moving through our area.
At this time, there are no indications of an immediate threat, but residents across the Southeast should continue to monitor the forecast as conditions evolve.
Regardless of whether tropical development occurs, parts of the Southeast, including North Florida, are expected to see increasing rainfall early next week.
Moisture associated with the developing weather pattern could bring additional showers and thunderstorms to the region.
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