ORLANDO, Fla. — If you are looking for clarity in the Florida U.S. Senate race between Sen. Bill Nelson and Gov. Rick Scott, then please stop reading now.
Two polls released this week show two very different images of the same race.
A CBS poll gave Scott a 5-point lead over Nelson. However, a NBC News/Marist poll released on Tuesday has Nelson up 4 points on Scott.
“The polls, to this point, and for the whole race, will be noise,” said Florida Democratic strategist Steve Schale. “This is a race that will bounce around, but is structurally very close.”
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“The election will be close,” said Francisco Gonzalez, director of the Philanthropy National Review Institute. “In a turbulent year with hot-button issues like gun control and immigration, it’s anyone’s to win or lose. I believe that’s why we’re seeing the polls shift so much and so often.”
Neither Nelson nor Scott has a serious primary challenge in the Florida primary, meaning each candidate can focus on the November special election.
“This is a very competitive contest with 18 percent of registered voters still persuadable,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.
Midterm elections tend to be referendum on the president and his party, as such one fulcrum in both the CBS and NBC polls is the approval of President Donald Trump.
In the CBS poll, 53 percent of Floridians approved of Trump and Scott led. In the NBC/Marist poll, Trump’s approval in Florida is 43 percent and Nelson is leading.