High rain chances are sticking around Wednesday across Central Florida, with most of the rain and storm activity falling between 3 p.m. and 8 p.m. We are also monitoring Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, located over the Gulf of Mexico.
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Some storms developed after 2 p.m. and moved quickly from the southwest to the northeast. Rainfall is forecast to reach between 1 to 2 inches of rain, with some locations receiving slightly higher amounts. Frequent lightning will also be a worrisome threat.
If you are outdoors, make sure to go indoors as soon as you hear thunder. Lightning can strike over 10 miles from a storm's base.
I have issued a state of emergency today in preparation for the impact of the low-pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico. The system will likely produce storm surge, hurricane-force winds & up to 15 inches of rain across the state. #lagov #lalege #lawx— John Bel Edwards (@LouisianaGov) July 10, 2019
📰: https://t.co/0D3MqBkw0T pic.twitter.com/ydFV6Z91Z1
. @NHC_Atlantic will initiate advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 at 11amET.— Irene Sans (@IreneSans) July 10, 2019
To be clear, the system is not officially named yet. They are going with PTC because its proximity to land and to be able to issue watches/warnings with enough time for residents to prepare.
Offical track from @NHC_Atlantic. Remember this storm will be a HUGE RAIN event.— Irene Sans (@IreneSans) July 10, 2019
DON'T underestimate it.
Cats are based on wind speeds.
+15inches of rain forecast for much of #Louisiana, parts of #Mississippi, #Alabama & less for #FL Panhandle.
Track likely to shift slightly. pic.twitter.com/ophHQNRa62
Lowest pressure forecast from both the GFS and Euro models could support Barry becoming a minimal hurricane before making landfall.— Rusty McCranie (@RMcCranieWFTV) July 10, 2019
Remember, we still don't even have a T.D., but rapid intensification is expected. pic.twitter.com/TkO9mJuUlE
Soon-to-be Barry is trying to form, but as it does, it will continue to move AWAY from Florida. I'm tracking that & a change in our rain pattern this weekend, on 9! pic.twitter.com/CuBsdWtznS— Brian Shields (@BrianShieldsTV) July 10, 2019
Easterly waves (tropical waves from Africa) form about 1/2 of named storms. The rest by disturbances in other areas, fronts “left overs”, etc.— Irene Sans (@IreneSans) July 8, 2019
EW become a notable source for tropical system ignition from late July on.
Dep/TS still need suitable conditions pic.twitter.com/IjcJq69ZBQ
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO
The National Hurricane Center initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two at 11 a.m. eastern time, Wednesday. The organization does this when a system has the potential to develop further but it is close to land, theatening population. Having a PTC allows the National Hurricane Center to issue advisories while the system still gets better organized.
The system is forecast to be Tropical Storm Barry by Thursday, and forecast to make landfall as a category 1 hurricanein Louisiana Saturday afternoon.
The storm is already developing storms over Louisiana, and the rain will continue constantly over the next three to four days. This will be a huge rain event for Louisiana, Mississippi, extreme southwestern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. There is plenty of time, and fuel, for this system to become much better organized and strengthen. Gulf waters are running around 4 degrees above average. Water temperatures in the upper 80s.
Over 15 inches or rain is expected from these storms.
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There are no models that show this system crossing over Central Florida. In fact, models show Florida to be protected by a high-pressure system (located over the Atlantic) that will likely be guiding this system well west of Florida.
With the current forecast, we would stay with the typical, summer-like pattern: hot, afternoon thunderstorms. In fact, there could also be some dry spells, or below-average rain chances, as much of the moisture will be pulled toward the tropical system's center.
Our #WC130J #SuperHercules takes off 🛫 for an investigative flight into a tropical depression over the Gulf of Mexico.#ReserveCitizenAirmen #ReserveReady #403WG #HurricaneHunters #WeatherReady #NOAA #NHC pic.twitter.com/mNR7FT00qT— Hurricane Hunters (@53rdWRS) July 10, 2019
It’s hurricane season, and as we approach the next few weeks, we will be approaching the peak of the season and will likely see more systems trying to develop and systems developing. Now is the time to make sure you have a plan for when the season picks up.
We will continue to monitor the situation and bring you the latest updates on our free WFTV weather app, wftv.com and on Eyewitness News.
Watch your full 5-day forecast below:
Follow our Severe Weather team on Twitter for live updates:
- Chief meteorologist Tom Terry
- Brian Shields
- Irene Sans
- Kassandra Crimi
- George Waldenberger
- Rusty McCranie
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