Eye on the Tropics

The Latest: Hurricane Florence could reach Category 5 strength Tuesday

By Irene Sans, WFTV.com
By Irene Sans, WFTV.com
5 a.m. Tuesday Update:
Millions of Americans are preparing for what could become one of the most catastrophic hurricanes to hit the Eastern Seaboard in decades. 
 
Hurricane Florence is carrying winds of up to 140 mph as a Category 4 storm. It is expected to strengthen and possibly become a Category 5 storm Tuesday before closing in on North or South Carolina on Thursday. 
 
Mandatory evacuations have been issued for parts of South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia, including the entire coast of South Carolina. 
 
Since reliable record-keeping began more than 150 years ago, North Carolina has been hit by only one Category 4 hurricane: Hazel, with 130 mph winds, in 1954.
11p.m. update: 
Florence keeps its maximum sustained winds at 140 mph on the latest advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center. Landfall has shifted a bit more north, near Jacksonville, North Carolina. This could still vary in the coming days, and even within a few hours of landfall as the hurricane will continue rebuild its center and wobble. 
Isaac weakens, a bit
Isaac, located about 960 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has lost a bit of strength, winds at 70 mph puts it back in the tropical storm category. Isaac could once again become a hurricane as it marches toward the west. With the current track, it is expected to pass through the central part of the Lesser Antilles, for now between Dominica and Guadeloupe. It will likely cross this part of the Antilles as a hurricane or strong tropical storm and the continue over the Central Caribbean, traveling west, its center well south of Puerto Rico. Still rough seas, and some rain bands could affect Puerto Rico starting Thursday. 
5 p.m update: 
Florence continues to intensify and expand. The latest advisory by The National Hurricane Center states that the major hurricane has maximum sustained winds of 140 mph and unfortunately it has not peaked in intensity. Florence could be getting really close to becoming a Category 5 hurricane by Tuesday or Wednesday. 
Florence has started to shift to the north in the latest advisory, moving west-northwest at 13 mph. It is forecast that Florence will pick up in speed starting Wednesday. 
Its wind field has also continue expanding and will continue to expand as the storm approaches the Carolinas. This will cause the storm to bring major impacts well beyond its center and well-inland. 
See the Latest: Florence's track
Threats to Central Florida - What does Florence mean to Central Florida?
It is unlikely Central Florida will be directly affected by Florence, although Atlantic beaches may see large swells. The high risk for rip currents is already present along the east coast and will likely to continue through the week. 
Threats for the Carolinas & mid-Atlantic states.
Storm surge: life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the coast lines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and a Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued for some of these areas by Tuesday morning.
Flooding: Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.

Wind: Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch will likely be issued by Tuesday morning. Damaging winds could also spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

Large swells and dangerous surf: Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Monday, noon update:
The National Hurricane Center updated Florence's strength Monday at 12 p.m. to a Major Category Hurricane 4, after hurricane hunters found maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. 
It continues to move to the west, but it is expected to start shifting to northwest at some point on Tuesday. 
At noon, Florence was located about 1,200 miles east of the Florida Keys. It is not expected to hit Florida directly.
“Today marks one year since Irma, and fortunately for us, we don’t have anything headed our way. However, the tropics are very active. Florence is headed to the Carolinas, which will increase our rip current threat all week. Plus, Isaac and Helene are out there, but it’s too early to tell where they will go. We’re watching it all,” Severe Weather Center 9 meteorologist Brian Shields said.
Florence will continue traveling toward the Carolina coast where it is forecast to arrive by Thursday evening. It is too soon to know exactly where Florence will make landfall. Residents from Georgia to the mid-Atlantic coast should prepare for the hurricane.
Besides the high probability of a major hurricane striking the coast, there is also a high probability that the system may stall, possibly over the Carolina-mid-Atlantic region. Some forecasts show at least a foot of rain with higher amounts for some places.
Parts of the mid-Atlantic are already well-saturated from recent rain. Additional rain, especially from a stalled tropical system, could be produce flash floods.
See the Latest: Florence's track
What does Florence mean to Central Florida?
It is unlikely Central Florida will be directly affected by Florence, although Atlantic beaches may see large swells. The high risk for rip currents is already present along the east coast and will likely to continue through the week. 
East coast beach conditions: Wave heights & winds
HURRICANE ISAAC
Meanwhile, Hurricane Isaac is approaching the Caribbean. Isaac became the fifth hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season Sunday evening. Isaac will likely continue to be a hurricane as it continues traveling west at about 14 mph.
It is forecast to cross the Central Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Most models show slight weakening to a tropical storm, perhaps before it reaches the Lesser Antilles. Residents should still prepare for a Category 1 hurricane.
Once Isaac enters the Caribbean, strong wind shear could dominate the area, which could further weaken the system. Isaac should still be monitored closely as any system that enters the area could pose a threat to Florida.
Helene in the Eastern Atlantic
Hurricane Helene is located west of the Cabo Verde Islands. It will continue traveling slowly west before making a turn north Tuesday, remaining over the open Atlantic and not threatening land.
Tropical disturbance over the western Caribbean
A disturbance over the western Caribbean has a 30 percent chance of development within five days. Wind shear is preventing the system from becoming organized in the short term, but as this system travels to the northwest and enters the Gulf of Mexico, conditions will become more favorable for the disturbance to become better organized.
Residents along the eastern Mexican coast and Texas should monitor this system closely.
 
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