Disturbance over Mexico could soon become first Atlantic tropical depression of season

ORANGE COUNTY, Fla. — As the remnants of Hurricane Agatha move over southern Mexico, a large area of disturbed weather has developed over the Yucatan Peninsula.


By Friday, this system is expected to organize into a tropical depression. Between then and Saturday, there’s a chance further organization may result in our first named storm of the Atlantic season, Alex.

READ: Severe Weather Center 9 Special: ‘Calm Before the Storm’: How to watch

By Saturday, we’re watching this system’s potential impacts on Central Florida, although the exact track and timing are still uncertain.

The European model has been consistently forecasting a more northern track, ultimately close to Central Florida. This would spell a wet forecast for Saturday, with a threat for severe storms and pockets of flooding. The American GFS forecasting model and others have been consistent with a fsystem farther south, with minimal impacts locally.

READ: Hurricane names: Here’s why Agatha will become Alex if the storm redevelops

Until the new tropical depression officially develops, it’ll be hard to get an accurate lock on the forecast track, but once it does, by Thursday or Friday, we’ll have a better idea which way this system will go, and ultimately what impacts, if any, we’ll see in each of our 10 Central Florida counties.

READ: Hurricane Agatha makes landfall in Mexico as strongest May storm

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