Increasing chance of tropical development over western Caribbean this week

ORLANDO, Fla. — Nota en español: Mayor probabilidad de desarrollo tropical en el Caribe occidental esta semana

A tropical wave is about to enter the western Caribbean as it meets with an extensive frontal boundary, the conditions will become more favorable for this area to develop a tropical system.

The National Hurricane Center has given the western Caribbean a 60 percent chance of development within the next 5 days.

In the last few hours, there have been more thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave moving westward over the Caribbean.

This area of disorganized storms will encounter the “tail end” of the cold front that just crossed over Central Florida this morning. The front will give the area sufficient energy to spark more storm activity, making conditions more favorable to develop a tropical depression or tropical storm by this weekend.

We must wait for these systems to come together to have a better idea of where it might be heading. Models are favoring a northeasterly, as it could be caught ahead of the next frontal boundary, which will push it to the northeast.

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If (and there is a big ‘if’) this scenario plays out, it would enhance our rain chance by the late weekend or early next week. Without a system formed over the western Caribbean is just simply impossible to point out where it might head.

It is likely that we will have to be monitoring the western Caribbean for the next 2 weeks or so. There is another tropical wave entering the Caribbean from the east and could have tropical development in the same region during this time.

This is the time of the year where tail-ends of cold fronts could spin tropical formation, and usually, this happens over the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean.

We will monitor closely this system through the week, please check back for any updates.

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Forecast Track

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