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Atlantic disturbance has 30% chance for tropical development

Atlantic system could drift toward Bermuda, but U.S. threat appears low.

Atlantic disturbance has 30% chance for tropical development

ORLANDO, Fla. — Meteorologists are tracking an area of disturbed weather in the Atlantic that has a 30% chance of tropical development.

The system is currently a disorganized cluster of thunderstorms over the Atlantic.

While it could gradually organize into a tropical low, its location is too far north to make a trek west across the Atlantic toward the U.S.

If the system does develop, forecasters expect it to generally remain over the central Atlantic.

There is a chance it could make a closer pass toward Bermuda, but it is still far too early to know whether that will happen.

The system is in the very early stages of its potential life cycle, meaning there is still considerable uncertainty about how it will evolve or where it could ultimately move.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, conditions are not particularly favorable for additional tropical development.

A large area of Saharan dust continues to push westward from Africa across the Atlantic.

The dry, dusty air can make it difficult for thunderstorms and tropical disturbances coming off the African coast to organize.

Meanwhile, strong wind shear over the Caribbean is also working against tropical development.

Wind shear can disrupt thunderstorms and prevent a developing system from becoming organized.

For now, the main area of interest remains the disturbance in the central Atlantic.

Forecasters will continue to monitor it closely as more data becomes available.

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