Post-Debate Polling Bump for Biden in Florida

ORLANDO, Fla. — A series of Florida polls conducted after the first presidential debate show Joe Biden improving in the state although the race remains within the margin of error.

While a USA Today/Suffolk poll shows the race tied with Joe Biden and Donald Trump both at 45%, three other polls from:  CNBC/Change Research, The University of North Florida, and NY Times/Siena show Biden ahead by between 4 and 6-points.

READ: President Trump showing no symptoms of COVID-19, doctors say

“Even this number that we put out that shows Biden +6, most of it was after the debate. There were a few responses after the president’s COVID diagnosis came out, but most of it is after the debate,” says Mike Binder, the Director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida.  “Two points is a landslide in Florida, so I think the final results of this election will be a lot closer than our polling results.”

Florida polls, much like national polls have shown an increasingly stable race. Binder attributes this to the low number of undecided voters.

READ: 9 things to know about Wednesday’s vice presidential debate; how to watch

“Poll after poll continues to show undecideds in the low single digits including in our poll where it’s at 3%,” says Binder. “Typically it’s closer to 10-points, even in 2016, a week before the election we were at 8 or 9 undecided, right now we are at three.”

The Real Clear Politics average of Florida has Joe Biden ahead of Donald Trump by 3.5, and increase of more than 2-points since before the debate.  At +3.5, Joe Biden is also ahead of where Hillary Clinton was in Florida with 4-weeks left in the election when she was at +2.9.

See the full data and methodology below:

Cox Media Group