11 p.m. update
Better news from Florida! The track continues to inch farther away from Florida. Now the track is expected to be over 60 miles away from Cape Canaveral on Sunday morning.
Tropical watches are likely to be added on Friday morning for the Space Coast. See the possible impacts written in the 8 p.m. advisory.
With this trajectory we could still have some impacts along the coast, but they are becoming less harmful. Let’s hope for a farther east track!
8 p.m. update
Isaías continues to hold maximum sustained with at 60 mph. There was no significant change at the 8 p.m. advisory by the National Hurricane Center
The system is still expected to stay about 50 miles offshore from the east coast of Florida, parallel to Brevard and Volusia counties Saturday evening.
Here are some impacts expected in these counties if the current forecast holds true.
5 p.m. update
In the last few hours, a center north of the Dominican Republic has been trying to redevelop. It is possible that with the storm traveling over very warm waters, the system could intensify to a Category 1 hurricane as it moves to parallel Cuba.
We are still expecting a turn to the north, northwest late Friday. As our digital certified meteorologist Irene Sans has explained before, the Bermuda high is expected to break and weaken, and upper-level low will allow the high to move eastward. This will open a channel for Isaías to turn northward and stay east of Florida.
Possible impacts to Florida
Some rain bands are possible, but not as intense as the ones located east of the tropical system.
Very rough beach conditions. High risk for rip currents, rough and dangerous
2 p.m. update
Tropical Storm Isaías has made landfall over the Dominican Republic. Most of its intense rain and storms are located to its east and north and an extensive rain band extending to the south of Hispaniola. Puerto Rico has been battered with intense downpours and will continue through the rest of this afternoon.
Heavy rain will continue to affect the Dominican Republic during the next 24 to 36 hours as Isaías continues to move to the northwest.
Trajectory remains the same with Isaías center remaining east of the east coast of Florida. It should be parallel to South Florida by Saturday evening.
11 a.m. update
Tropical Storm Isaías strengthen a bit, maximum sustained winds at 60 mph, while moving northwest at about 20 mph. Expect a decrease in forward speed tonight as it starts turning west-northwestward. The interaction with the mountainous terrain of the Dominican Republic is very likely to weaken it somewhat, but when it re-emerges over warm waters, the storm may strengthen.
Tropical Storm Isaías’s path continues to move east and away from Florida. Being on the left side of the storm puts us on the best scenario. The left side is usually the less active side, not so windy and with less damage. In any case, depending on its proximity, there may be beach erosion, high waves, rip currents and storm surge.
If the path remains away from Florida, we can expect little rain.
Isaías center will make landfall today in the Dominican Republic and be in the Southeastern Bahamas by early Friday. The storm will move over the central Bahamas Friday evening and be near the northwestern Bahamas or south Florida late Friday evening.
This is a good time to review the terminology:
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.
8:01 a.m. update
According to the National Hurricane Center, Isaias is causing “life-threatening flash flooding and high winds over Puerto Rico.”
Winds are reported to be around 60 miles per hour.
4:30 a.m. update
Tropical Storm Isaias is ranging near Puerto Rico and struggling as it is being hurt by land interaction. Most models now have its track staying east of Florida on Sunday. While the shift east is good, Isaias is still a developing system, so the track could easily shift again.
Thursday afternoon models have the track trending further offshore.
On its current track, the system could bring extra rain & breezy conditions to Central Florida on Sunday.
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