Eye on the Tropics

Major Hurricane Florence navigates the Atlantic; what models show, possible scenarios

By Irene Sans, WFTV.com
By Irene Sans, WFTV.com
Florence became the first major category storm of the 2018 hurricane season. If you have been paying attention to the tropics, you may have been hearing about this storm for a while because it started as a strong tropical wave categorized as Potential Tropical Cyclone No. 6 on Thursday, Aug, 30. The following Saturday it was officially named Florence when it reached tropical storm status.
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Since then, Florence has been moving at a constant, slow, speed of about 14 mph. Being all the way out over the Eastern Atlantic Ocean, Florence, a week later continues to be over 2,500 miles away from the contiguous United States and over 1,000 miles away from the Lesser Antilles.
There is still a long way for Florence to travel for it to make it close to threaten land. Most importantly within the time frame that would take Florence to travel closer to land, any land, there are still many players in the atmosphere that can make this system change trajectory and its strength.

THE WEATHER MODELS

Staying with the same train of thought as above, there is still a lot that can happen in the atmosphere that can change Florence's track and intensity. Models often change with new data put in.

WHAT THE MODELS SHOW?

All models keep this system over water during the next five days. And this will happen as, there is still a lot of ocean for Florence to navigate over. In the past five days, models show variation on where Florence could head next.

SCENARIO ONE

The Bermuda High can build stronger and miss a low-pressure system in the upper level of the atmosphere, a trough that will pull Florence northward. If this happens Florence could have a chance of making U.S. landfall. As far as intensity, there will be other varying factors to consider; would there be wind shear to break this system or let it fizzle out? Could there be favorable conditions after day seven to maintain this system as a hurricane? We just simply don’t know. Intensity is something much harder to forecast this far out.
SCENARIO TWO
If the high weakens a bit, or breaks off, then Florence will be pulled northward, getting trapped in the Jetstream and then swing back toward Europe, likely weakening over cooler waters. Would it arrive as a hurricane or tropical storm to Europe? Again, intensity is something very difficult to forecast, anywhere in the world.

At this point we will continue to monitor Florence and whatever other systems that might (and likely will) develop in the meantime while Florence navigates the Central Atlantic Ocean.

THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE – Invest 92L

We are watching a tropical wave coming out of Africa, labeled Invest 92-L, the wave is very disorganized and does not appear to become organized to acquire a name until late Thursday or Friday. This system is also set to stay over water for a while as it travels west.

You should continue to be aware of the tropics and monitor daily weather conditions in your area. We are still dealing with very hot temperatures and the typical afternoon thunderstorms in Florida, that can become dangerous too.

East coast beach conditions: Wave heights & winds

Cox Media Group

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