ORLANDO, Fla. - The tropics are heating up! We are tracking two tropical disturbances: Tropical Storm Dorian and Tropical Depression number 6.
TUESDAY 11 a.m. update and future update on Tuesday:
Tropical Storm Dorian steady over the Caribbean; high uncertainty of impact in Florida
TUESDAY 8 a.m. update:
The latest track for Tropical Storm Dorian has its wind speeds remaining at 50 mph as it tracks 275 miles southeast of Puerto Rico. Channel 9 meteorologist Rusty McCranie said Florida could start to feel the impacts of the storm late on Saturday.
8am Dorian Update: Winds still 50mph. 275 miles SE of Puerto Rico. Possible Impacts to Florida beginning late Saturday. pic.twitter.com/zrJgblbq4M— Rusty McCranie (@RMcCranieWFTV) August 27, 2019
TUESDAY 5 a.m. update:
The National Hurricane Center's latest update keeps Tropical Storm Dorian tracking in the general direction of Florida. Channel 9 meteorologist Brian Shields said it's still too soon to tell how much, if any, impact the storm will have in Central Florida.
The 5AM update on Dorian is out with no major changes at this time. There remains a great deal of uncertainty with the future track & intensity of Dorian after it encounters Hispaniola. Continue to monitor forecasts from the National Hurricane Center at https://t.co/s74vyuZlFT pic.twitter.com/98TaDiK5gu— NWS Tampa Bay (@NWSTampaBay) August 27, 2019
Tuesday’s local forecast: There is a 50% chance of afternoon storms in Central Florida, with an average high of 93 degrees.
MONDAY 11 p.m. update:
Tropical Storm Dorian crossed Barbados and it lost a bit of its maximum sustained winds. The system now has 50 mph maximum sustained winds and will continue to travel to the west-northwest at about 13 mph. The dry air seems to be weakening Dorian and it seems like it will continue to struggle as at the start of its journey through the Caribbean. Hurricane Hunters investigated the system Monday afternoon and found the system not to be as organized as shown in the satellite.
It is possible that tropical storm or hurricane watches will be issued Tuesday morning for Hispaniola.
The cone shows uncertainty. Therefore, it widens w/ time. More time, more uncertainty. See how the margin of error increases. The cone shows where the CENTER is most likely to land. 2/3 lands in cone. But remember impacts go beyond the center of the storm. pic.twitter.com/3MwuJCsJUV— Irene Sans (@IreneSans) August 27, 2019
From Thursday on the forecast is still very uncertain. There is the potential for some impact in Florida, but it will all depend on how disrupted this system is once it crosses the Caribbean and possibly interacts with the terrain in the Dominican Republic.
We will continue to monitor the system and keep you updated on Eyewitness News and on our free WFTV Weather app.
Remember the margin of error at day 5 is over 200 miles. There is still a lot on the table for Dorian in the Caribbean. Although Florida is in the cone, it is the cone of UNCERTAINTY.— Irene Sans (@IreneSans) August 27, 2019
Now we wait for #Dorian to enter the #Caribbean pic.twitter.com/mpXAtSjur9
MONDAY 8 p.m. update:
Invest 98L has become Tropical Depression number 6. It continues to move away from land. The system is about 300 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Currently, the storm is crawling to the east at about 2 mph and will turn northward on Wednesday.
DORIAN CROSSED BARBADOS
Dorian, the fourth tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is trying to become better organized. Dorian is expected to enter the Caribbean where it is expected to a very short window to intensify, through the first half of the day Tuesday, and then interact with wind shear, which can really damage the system.
Barbados and surrounding Windward Islands could receive up to 10 inches of rain in some spots. Winds will be increasing as Dorian is likely to intensify to a hurricane as it crosses the Lesser Antilles.
Dorian is a very compact storm with tropical-storm-force winds that only extend outward 45 miles.
A tropical storm watch has been issued for Puerto Rico as the storm is forecast to pass to its South and much rain is expected to fall over the Island.
#Recon flight through #Dorian not showing a lower pressure (slightly higher in fact ~1005mb) yet, but colder clouds near the system still a sign of more slow organization. Still awaiting a vortex statement from the aircraft for more detail. #EyeonTropics— tom terry (@TTerryWFTV) August 26, 2019
Puerto Rico under a Tropical Storm watch. #PR will be in the most active side of Dorian, expect torrential rains. 2-4in some spots 6''— Irene Sans (@IreneSans) August 26, 2019
Vigilancia de tormenta tropical para #PuertoRico
el lado más lluvioso de #Dorian traerá lluvias torreciales a PR 2-4 pulgadas, algunos con 6'' pic.twitter.com/Kuvzj3JIz0
The storm will be very close to Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Under the 5 p.m. Monday advisory, the storm is set to pass about 20 miles southwest of Boqueron, Puerto Rico as a category 1 hurricane. The track continues to shift north a bit, but places Dorian right over the Mona Passage (between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic) Thursday morning.
#Dorian's rains arrive to the Windward Islands. This is a compact storm. The track has been consistent, but the intensities are EVERYWHERE.— Irene Sans (@IreneSans) August 26, 2019
Also, track shifted a bit to the right.. but with intensity varying so much, this could still change. pic.twitter.com/c7fprrYdAf
Models are far from consensus on intensity, varying from a tropical storm to a Cateory 3 hurricane on Thursday. This tells us that we must focus on what we know about the conditions in the Caribbean. There is very dry air surrounding the system. This dry air has prevented the storm from gaining strength since it was named over the weekend. The system stayed with maximum sustained winds between 40-50 miles per hour throughout the weekend. This system will encounter lots of wind shear once it enters the Caribbean which will limit its strengthening and structure further.
IS DORIAN A THREAT TO FLORIDA?
Viewers have asked if this system will threaten Florida. It is too far out to know this but considering it will struggle a lot in the Caribbean, then could pass over the high mountains in the Dominican Republic, this system is not likely to be a big tropical threat to Florida. The margin of error this far out is over 250 miles.
It was expected for the tropics to get busier. After all, we are approaching the heart of the season. Usually, over 80% of Atlantic tropical activity occurs between August and October.
Channel 9 will continue to monitor the tropics closely and bring you the latest on Eyewitness News and on our free WFTV Weather app.
Interesting Fact: #Dorian replaced Dean (2007) in the name list.— Irene Sans (@IreneSans) August 26, 2019
Hurricane #Dean was the strongest tropical cyclone of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season. It was a category 5 hurrricane that hit Quintana Roo, Mexico. pic.twitter.com/0GgFEU7pvs
Follow our Severe Weather team on Twitter for live updates:
- Chief meteorologist Tom Terry
- Brian Shields
- Irene Sans
- Kassandra Crimi
- George Waldenberger
- Rusty McCranie
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