, Fla. — The Atlantic basin is expected to have minimal to no development from the start of this year through late May and early June.
The water temperatures remain too cool currently and are not projected to warm up enough by the start of June to support a long-track hurricane across the Atlantic.
Another factor keeping our chances of development low is the increased Saharan dust building over the eastern Atlantic along the African coast. Saharan dust in the atmosphere limits development by injecting dry, stable air into the mid-levels.
This would prevent the convection needed for thunderstorm development that creates tropical disturbances.
The Pacific hurricane season could get an early start. Warm surface waters south of the southwestern coast of Mexico could provide favorable conditions for development around Memorial Day.
Early-season development is not uncommon in this location. If a tropical system develops, it will be short-lived. As the system treks westward, it will enter cooler waters and begin to dissipate before it comes within 2000 miles of Hawaii.
Three of the last six Pacific hurricane seasons have had a tropical system develop in the month of May. If a tropical storm develops, it will be named Amanda.
The official start to the Pacific hurricane season is May 15th while the Atlantic season kicks off June 1st.
Click here to download our free news, weather and smart TV apps. And click here to stream Channel 9 Eyewitness News live.
©2026 Cox Media Group
